Maotai sells well near the Spring Festival： a bottle of more than 1850 is out of stock, which is comparable to grabbing a train ticket.
As the Spring Festival approaches, the liquor market has entered the golden period of consumption, and Maotai Company has also increased its market input. However, according to a survey conducted by Beijing Youth Daily reporter, it is still hard to find a bottle of cheap Maotai. Not only is it normal for offline retailers to have high prices and out of stock, but it is even more difficult for scalpers to actually buy Maotai in several major online e-commerce platforms because they use ticketing software to sweep goods.
The traditional festival is approaching, and the liquor market has entered the peak sales season. Although Maotai Group has continuously increased market supply, the most difficult liquor to buy this Spring Festival is probably the cheap flying Maotai. A survey by Beijing Youth Daily reporter found that Feitian Maotai was sold at a higher price in physical stores, with a maximum price of 1,850 yuan per bottle, which was out of stock. In online shopping malls, it is as difficult to grab a cheap Maotai as to grab a train ticket in Spring Festival travel rush, and consumers can’t compete with scalper’s snapping software by staying up all night. It is reported that Maotai Group tried its best to manage the Moutai market. On the one hand, the chairman repeatedly called dealers not to push up the market price of Moutai, and at the same time punished illegal dealers. On the other hand, it cracked down on scalpers. Last year, 487,000 scalper users were intercepted, but the governance effect was not satisfactory.
offline
No more than three bottles in the tobacco and liquor store.
As the Spring Festival approaches, the liquor market has entered the golden period of consumption, and Maotai Company has increased its market input. However, in physical stores at the retail end, high prices and out-of-stock are still the norm. When the reporter of Beiqing Daily visited and investigated the retail end, it was found that some retailers were out of stock, and some stocks were very low, no more than five bottles, which could be counted in a slap.
In a tobacco and alcohol specialty store located in the North Second Ring Road, the salesperson told the reporter of Beiqing Daily that Maotai is very tight now, with a price per day. It sold more than 1,400 and 1,600 some time ago, and now the price is 1,850 yuan, and "I can’t say what the price will be tomorrow." According to the salesman, Feitian Maotai in their store was out of stock for several months last year, and now it has just been replenished, but the inventory is no more than three bottles. "If you want to buy four or five bottles, just call one day in advance so that we can stock up and buy more without discount." In another tobacco and alcohol store in Wangfujing, the retail price of Feitian Maotai is 1,600 yuan. Manager Jiang, the boss, said frankly: "If I buy three bottles, I still have them in my hand. If I want to buy a box (a box of six bottles), there are really not so many."
According to the survey, these tobacco and alcohol specialty stores sell at a higher price even if they have Maotai. At present, the official retail price of Feitian Maotai is 1499 yuan. According to the research report of CICC Securities, there is a serious shortage of Moutai in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Anhui, and high-end tobacco and alcohol retail terminals are generally only sold in scattered Maotai, with a retail price of 1,600 yuan/bottle.
So where did the cheap Maotai go? On January 9th, at the "Symposium on Price Commitment of National Distributors of Maotai Liquor", some distributors complained that they had complied with the price but could not control the secondary reselling. "I sold 1,000 boxes of Moutai yesterday, and 60% of them went to tobacco hotels, small and medium-sized supermarkets and trading companies. Real consumers didn’t buy Maotai. " An Anhui dealer said.
online
"Software Party" and "Main Attack" Maotai official website
In order to stabilize the market price, since last year, Kweichow Moutai has pushed the e-commerce platform to launch products and sold Feitian Maotai at a low price. Surprisingly, however, the online shopping mall and the snap-up link set up by the e-commerce platform let the scalpers see the opportunity to make a fortune. They used the ticketing software in their hands to expand their business scope from grabbing big hospital numbers and train tickets to grabbing Moutai wine orders. It is said that 10 accounts can grab 4 to 5 orders, so it is as difficult to grab Maotai online as it is to grab a train ticket in Spring Festival travel rush.
However, careful attention has found that on the internet, there are always people who grab Maotai and immediately print the order, and then either don’t pay and wait for the order to expire; Either keep the original box receipt after receiving the goods and transfer it directly in the post bar. According to insiders, there are not many real consumers who buy Moutai online at present, because Maotai official website is also the platform of "software party" and "main attack", while the anti-scalper system on Maotai cloud merchants has limited ability, only controlling repeated addresses and swiping bills for many times, but not directly managing ID, so scalpers take the opportunity to fry wine.
According to statistics, in 2017, Feitian Maotai shipped over 200,000 bottles on several major e-commerce platforms, which was equivalent to realizing 260 million yuan in cash. However, it was reported that most of these Moutai wines were returned to dealers or hoarded in the hands of speculators.
respond
Last year, more than 480,000 scalper users were intercepted.
In response to the public concern about scalpers snapping up Moutai, relevant persons of Maotai E-commerce Company publicly responded that 200,000 bottles were put into Yunshang Double 12. At present, a total of 87,000 scalpers have been identified and intercepted. In 2017, 487,000 scalper users were directly intercepted, 73,000 scalper users were reserved, and 53,200 abnormal orders were closed.
Regarding the specific governance measures taken for scalpers in the whole year of 2017, the person in charge said that Maotai E-commerce Company used its own abnormal user identification model including Ali WAF Ant Shield, Tencent Tianyu and Maotai E-commerce, covering machines, socialization, intentional forgery and other aspects, and strictly screened users before placing orders, and actively docked with relevant government departments to crack down on the phenomenon of scalper speculation.
Yuan Renguo, chairman of Maotai Group, recently called on dealers not to push up the market price of Moutai and let consumers really drink it. He believes that the price fluctuation of Maotai market is small, and the increase is small. Keeping it in a reasonable range is beneficial to consumers and economic development. He stressed that since Moutai is used for "drinking" and "storing", it is necessary to treat the price rationally, and Moutai is not used for speculation.
In addition to cracking down on scalpers, Maotai Group will also increase its market input. At the 2018 annual work meeting of Maotai Group held recently, Yuan Renguo said that based on the situation, Maotai proposed that the development goal in 2018 is to achieve tax-included income of 90 billion yuan; At the same time, the added value is about 78 billion yuan; The output and sales volume of liquor reached more than 120,000 tons; Pay taxes of 30 billion yuan; The income of companies other than joint-stock companies accounts for about 10% of the group. In addition, as the Spring Festival is approaching, Maotai plans to put in no less than 7,000 tons of Moutai and 6,000 tons of series wines to ensure the quantity before the Spring Festival.
market
Maotai’s market value approaches trillions.
The tight situation of offline Moutai is transmitted to the capital market, which means that the stock price has soared, constantly hitting a record high. In 2018, Kweichow Moutai continued to rise for 8 trading days. On January 12th, Kweichow Moutai reported 788.42 yuan, up by 1.76%, with a total market value of 990.411 billion yuan, just one step away from one trillion yuan. A year ago, Maotai’s share price was 348.51 yuan, and its current market value has more than doubled.
At the 2018 annual working meeting of Maotai held last week, Li Baofang, general manager of Maotai Group, said, "The capital market mainly allows investors to advance and cash their psychological expectations based on their own judgments. I hope that the stock of Maotai is the carrier for investors to share the value of Maotai, not the chip of short-term game; The stock price of Maotai is the true embodiment of the value of Maotai, not the rise caused by emotional follow-up or even speculative rashness. " He said that investors are welcome to treat and invest in Maotai with a rational and professional attitude and a pragmatic and long-term vision. According to media reports, Kweichow Moutai and LVMH Group are both constituent stocks of the global major luxury industry index. At present, Kweichow Moutai ranks first among the 18 constituent stocks, and LVMH Group ranks second.
prospect
The brokerage research report believes that Maotai will still raise prices in the future.
According to the Capital Securities Research Report, at present, the price of a batch of Maotai Company is around 1,500 yuan. Before the price increase, the channel spread was close to that of 700 yuan. The price increase promoted the reasonable return of the channel profit, and after the price increase, the channel profit was still rich. They believe that the company may continue to raise prices in the future, and its performance in 2019-2020 is expected to continue to maintain steady growth.
According to the analysis of industry organizations, Maotai’s performance growth in recent years is realized by product price increase and capacity increase. However, due to objective conditions, the capacity growth space of high-end liquor is limited. It is worth mentioning that Li Baofang, Party Secretary and General Manager of Maotai Group, recently revealed that the Moutai liquor expansion project is under construction, and it is estimated that after the expansion, the production capacity of 56,000 tons of Moutai liquor will be formed, but after this expansion and expansion, it will not be expanded in the short term. Personally, he believes that it will not expand production for at least 10 years. This means that if Kweichow Moutai wants to maintain high growth in the next few years, it may mainly rely on price increases to achieve it.
Kweichow Moutai has always been favored by major brokers, and they have given higher expected target prices. However, the target price given by several brokers has been surpassed only a few trading days after the Kweichow Moutai research report was issued.
For example, Xiao Chan and Ye Shuhuai of orient securities released a research report on December 28th, 2017, giving Kweichow Moutai a 15% premium based on the valuation of comparable companies, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 26 times in 2018 and a target price of 726.44 yuan. However, in the second trading day after the release of the research report, the share price of Kweichow Moutai reached 726.50 yuan, exceeding the above target price. In addition, on December 29, 2017, Northeast Securities also released a research report on the price adjustment of Moutai, and gave it a price-earnings ratio of 28 times in 2018, corresponding to a target price of 776.16 yuan. After just a few trading days, this target price was broken again. Last Friday, the closing price of Maotai was 788.42 yuan. Text/reporter Zhao Xinpei