Danzhou natural resource he planning bureau

two〇March 2003

First, the preparation of general rulesone

(A) the guiding ideologyone

(2) Principles and basis for compilationone

(3) Related conceptsthree

(four) the scope of application and planning periodfour

Second, the regional overviewfour

(1) Geographical locationfour

(2) Administrative divisionsfive

(3) Natural conditionsfive

(4) Population conditionseight

(5) Social and economic conditionsnine

Iii. Implementation of the Plan for the Last Yearnine

Four, this year’s planning process11

(A) the preparatory stage11

(2) Investigation and analysis stage11

(III) Draft plan formulation stage11

(4) stage of soliciting opinionstwelve

(five) the stage of approval and publicationtwelve

Five, the technical route and method of this year’s plantwelve

(1) Technical routetwelve

(2) Working methods13

VI. Process and basis of determining indicators14

(A) Analysis of the supply capacity of state-owned construction land14

(B) State-owned construction land demand forecast analysis14

Seven, planning results35

(A) the total supply of construction land35

(B) Construction land supply structure35

(3) Layout of construction land supply36

(D) Construction land supply mode36

(A) the guiding ideology

Guided by the supreme leader’s ecological civilization thought, we will fully implement the decision-making arrangements of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Second Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, and provinces and cities, so as to speed up the transformation of land use mode as the main line and rationally arrange the whole city.2023The total amount, structure, layout, timing and mode of the annual supply of state-owned construction land, give full play to the role of land resources in the stage of high-quality development, closely focus on ensuring the high-quality use of land, ensuring the implementation of land space planning, and ensuring economic and social development, and effectively focus on urban development priorities such as the construction of free trade ports, the central city in the west, and the construction of a new bay around the city. Focus on strengthening the supply and management of real estate land, ensuring the effective supply of ordinary commercial housing, ensuring that the land for affordable housing should be fully guaranteed, strengthening the supply guarantee of industrial land, promoting the market-oriented allocation of industrial land, providing more accurate land element guarantee for Danzhou’s high-quality development, and laying the foundation for realizing the 14 th Five-Year Plan.

(2) Principles and basis for compilation

1.Compilation principle

(one) the principle of urban and rural planning

Give full play to the role of land in macro-control, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure through the adjustment of land use structure, give full play to the radiation and driving role of cities in rural development, establish a long-term mechanism to promote the integration, coordination and sustainable development of urban and rural areas.

(2) the principle of economical and intensive land use

Further establish and improve the system of economical and intensive land use, take land use control as the core, promote the work of "linking increase with deposit", strictly control the supply of incremental land, make full use of existing stock land, further promote the transformation of land use mode from extension expansion to connotation tapping potential, from extensive and inefficient to intensive and efficient, and control the disorderly expansion of urban construction. Strictly control the scale of various construction land, continuously improve the level of economical and intensive land use, and contribute to building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society.

(three) principle of balance between supply and demand

In the case of fully analyzing the supply potential of state-owned construction land, comprehensively considering the level of economic and social development, capital investment capacity and land demand of various departments, rationally allocate the land supply structure and supply, and form a pattern in which land supply adapts to market demand.

(four) the principle of keeping pressure

Adhere to rational allocation and effective use of land. Establish a standardized real estate market order to promote the sustained, stable and healthy development of the real estate market; In strict accordance with the national Catalogue of Prohibited Land Use Projects and Catalogue of Restricted Land Use Projects, the principle of "keeping land supply under pressure" is emphasized, and land for industrial projects with high energy consumption, high material consumption, high pollution and low added value is strictly prohibited, so as to promote the adjustment of industrial structure and the transformation of economic growth mode.

2.basis of compilation

1.laws and regulations

(one) Land Management Law of the People’s Republic of China (2019Revised in);

(2) Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on the Implementation of Land Management Law (2021Revised in);

(three) People’s Republic of China (PRC) City Real Estate Management Law (2019Revised in);

(fourPeople’s Republic of China (PRC) Urban and Rural Planning Law (2019Revised in);

(five) Regulations on Land Management of Hainan Special Economic Zone (2018Revised in).

2.Relevant codes and standards

(one) The Ministry of Land and Resources on Printing and Distributing<Specification for preparation of supply plan for state-owned construction land>(Trial) Notice (Land and Resources Development [2010〕117No.);

(2) Opinions of Hainan Provincial People’s Government on Further Deepening the "Two Suspension" Policy to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry (Qiong Fu [2017〕76No.);

(threeOpinions of Hainan Provincial People’s Government on Further Strengthening Macro-control of Land and Improving Land Use Efficiency(Qiongfu [2018〕threenumber);

(four) "About printing and distributing<Control Index of Construction Land Transfer in Hainan Province>(try out)Notice "(Joan’s land and resources regulations [2018〕sevennumber);

(five) "Guiding Opinions on Implementing Industrial Project Development and Land Access Agreement"(Joan’s land and resources regulations [2018〕eightnumber);

(six) "Hainan Provincial Development and Reform Commission on Printing and Distributing<Catalogue of Prohibited Restrictions on Industrial Access in Hainan Province (2019Edition)>Notice of "(Joan hair change industry [2019〕1043No.);

(seven) Opinions of Hainan Provincial People’s Government on Supporting Industrial Project Development Planning and Land Security (Qiongfu [2021〕forty-fourNumber).

3.Planning and national economy information.

(one) Danzhou city master plan (space class2015—2030）；

(2) Regulatory detailed planning of Danzhou city;

(threeStatistical Bulletin of Danzhou’s National Economic and Social Development.

(3) Related concepts

Danzhou city2023The supply plan of state-owned construction land in refers to the scientific arrangement made by Danzhou Municipal People’s Government on the total amount, structure, layout, timing and mode of all state-owned construction land supplied during the planning period.

Among them:

The total supply of state-owned construction land refers to the total scale of all kinds of state-owned construction land supply during the planning period.

The supply structure of state-owned construction land refers to the supply scale and proportional relationship of various state-owned construction land such as commercial service land, industrial and mining storage land, residential land, public management and public service land, special land, water area and water conservancy facilities land, transportation land and so on during the planning period.

The layout of state-owned construction land supply refers to the spatial distribution of state-owned construction land supply during the planning period.

The time sequence of state-owned construction land supply refers to the arrangement of state-owned construction land supply in different time periods during the planning period.

The supply methods of state-owned construction land include allocation, transfer, lease, investment at a fixed price or shareholding.

(four) the scope of application and planning period

1.area of application

This plan is applicable to all state-owned construction land planned to be supplied within the administrative area of Danzhou City, including Yangpu Economic Development Zone.

2.Planning period

The duration of this plan is one year, which is2023yearonemoononeSolstice2023yeartwelvemoon31Day.

Second, the regional overview

(1) Geographical location

Danzhou is located in the northwest of Hainan Island. There are Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences and South China University of Tropical Agriculture with strong scientific and technological strength. It is the economic and cultural center and transportation hub in the western part of Hainan Province, and it is a national spark technology-intensive area. Danzhou is adjacent to Lingao County, Chengmai County and Qiongzhong Li and Miao Autonomous Region in the east, Baisha Li Autonomous County and Changjiang Li Autonomous County in the southwest, Beibu Gulf in the northwest and across the sea from Vietnam. Land and sea transportation is developed in the territory, and the West Line Expressway, Haiyu West Line Highway and Hainan West Ring Railway run through the city. Danzhou City is far from Haikou, the provincial capital.129Kilometers, from Yangpu Port60Kilometers, shipping can reach Southeast Asia and coastal cities of the motherland directly. The city is long from east to west.87Kilometers, north-south width82Kilometers, area3258Square kilometers, it is the largest city in Hainan Province.

(2) Administrative divisions

Danzhou city co-governs.oneA development zone (Yangpu Economic Development Zone),16Towns (Nada Town, Baimajing Town, Zhonghe Town, Paipu Town, Mutang Town, Eman Town, Guangcun Town, Haitou Town, Heqing Town, Lanyang Town, Nanfeng Town, Yaxing Town, Dacheng Town, East Cheng Zhen Town, Wang Wu Town and Xinzhou Town),fourA state-owned farm (State-owned Bayi Farm, State-owned Western Union Farm, State-owned Lanyang Farm and State-owned Xipei Farm), the municipal government is located in Zhongxing Street in that big town.oneNumber.

(3) Natural conditions

1.Geomorphological conditions

The terrain of Danzhou City inclines from southeast to northwest, with an average elevation.105Rice. The city’s topography consists of three parts: coastal plain, terrace platform and mountainous hills. The northwest is mainly basalt and Quaternary marine sedimentary plain and river alluvial plain, accounting for the total area.28%; The central part is terrace and volcanic lava platform, accounting for the total area51%; The southeast is mountainous and hilly, accounting for the total area.21%. There are many small mountains in the territory, mostly distributed in the southeast, and Shamaoling is above sea level.752Rice is the highest point in China.

2.Climatic condition

Danzhou is a tropical monsoon maritime climate zone, with no heat in summer and no cold in winter. Sunny, mild climate, average annual temperature.23．2 ℃.oneMonthly average temperature16．9℃The extreme maximum temperature is40．0℃. Rainfall is abundant but unevenly distributed, with less rainfall in winter and spring and more rainfall in summer and autumn, with an average annual rainfall.1815Millimeter,fiveMoon solstice10Month is rainy season,11Month to next yearfourJune is the dry season. Affected by tropical storms and typhoons, the county is light, and strong typhoons average everyfourOnce in a year

3.Hydrological conditions

Danzhou City is rich in water resources, with large and small rivers.36Article, large, medium and small reservoirs33Among them, Nandu River, Zhubijiang River and Wenlan River originated from abroad, and Beimen River, Chunjiang River, Guangcun River, Dajiang River and Shanji River originated from China.fiveArticle. Songtao Reservoir is one of the top ten reservoirs in China, the largest reservoir in the province and an important resource for agricultural irrigation.

4.Natural resource conditions

Danzhou city is rich in mineral resources, and lignite, oil shale and barite have been proved to be of development value.10The rest are gold, silver, iron, lead, zinc, tungsten, tantalum, niobium and petroleum.10A variety of metal mines. The protection of ecological resources in Danzhou City is extremely complete, and the forest coverage rate reaches.48%, tree species resources rank first in the province, and cherishing tree species resources is second to none. Hainan Tropical Botanical Garden alone has preserved thousands of precious tree species, including plum, mother, agarwood, pear, jackfruit, litchi, longan, melia azedarach and other precious trees. There are many kinds of medicinal plants, including the world-famous anticancer plants Cephalotaxus hainanensis and Maydenwood, as well as the well-known boat-fruited sterculia, nux vomica and agarwood. Wild animals are rich in resources and precious in species, including gibbons, leopards, bears and water deer., Huang Wei,penetrateShanjia, scarab, parrot, duck, pheasant, partridge, etc.

Danzhou is rich in marine resources and has a long coastline.298Kilometers, there are many harbors, mainly Houshuiwan, Danzhou Bay and Yangpu Port. Due to its proximity to the Beibu Gulf, the fishing ground is vast, and there are many kinds of marine fish, such as mackerel, red fish, pomfret, squid, cuttlefish, eel, grouper, sea cucumber, prawn, hairtail, crab, white butterfly and pearl oyster. Danzhou is one of the "Top 100 Agricultural Cities in China" with a vast territory, fertile soil and criss-crossing canals. Rich in rubber, sugar cane, pepper, melons and vegetables, coffee, citronella and southern medicine.Tropical cash crops are also rich in mango, longan, litchi, pineapple, banana, coconut and other tropical famous fruits, among which the planting area of rubber and sugarcane ranks among the best in the province.

Danzhou City, located in the northern section of the industrial corridor in the west of Hainan, is the industrial center in the northwest of Hainan. Its economic development is in a tripartite confrontation with Haikou and Sanya, forming an industrial system with sugar, rubber products, furniture, building materials, cement, steel light industry, agricultural products processing and aquatic products processing as the main body.

Danzhou is rich in tourism resources, and it is the city and county with the largest variety of tourism resources in western Hainan, withtwentyA number of tourist attractions, both beautiful natural scenery, but also unique cultural landscape. Natural scenery includes Lanyang National Forest Park, Hainan Tropical Botanical Garden in Tropical Plant Kingdom, Songtao Reservoir in Treasure Island and Yunyue Lake in Fairy Dressing.70Thousands of meters of high-quality seaside beaches-Haitou and Paipu Golden Beach and Guangcun Silver Beach, the "Egret Paradise" suspected of entering the fairyland, and the "Dragon Gate Surge" which makes people feel excited, include the famous Lanyang Hot Spring, the Lumuwan Waterfall, the magical Shentou and Yingdao Rock Flower Water Cave, as well as Guanyin Cave and Juntun Huaguo Mountain. In addition, Danzhou still has a long history, splendid culture, simple folk customs and ancient customs.11The ancient cultural city of Korea. Dongpo Academy, a national key cultural relic protection unit located in Zhonghe Ancient Town, has Tiannan Scenic Spot, Danzhou Ancient City, Fubo Ancient Temple, Baimajing Historic Site, Ningji Temple, Taolang Temple and Kuixing Tower.

(4) Population conditions

The total population of the city is871118People, from the perspective of household composition, have a total of family households.251357Household, collective household5950The population of households and families is841972People, collective household population is29146People, the average population of each household is3.35People.

In terms of gender ratio, among the total population of the city, the male population is466902Person, account for53.60%; The female population is404216Person, account for46.40%. Sex ratio of total population115.51%.

Judging from the age composition, among the total population of the city,0-14The age population is177395Person, account for20.36%;15-59The age population is556716Person, account for63.91%;60The population aged and above is137007Person, account for15.73%, in which:65The population aged and above is97777Person, account for11.22%.

In terms of education level, the population with university education (referring to junior college or above) is70810People; The population with high school (including technical secondary school) education is109034People; The population with junior high school education is326877People; The population with primary school education is226856People.

From the perspective of urban and rural population, the population living in cities and towns is452158Person, account for51.91%; The population living in the countryside is418960Person, account for48.09%.

(5) Social and economic conditions

2022In, the city’s regional GDP878.91Billion yuan, calculated at constant prices, an increase over the previous year.122.32%. Among them, the added value of the primary industry154.69One hundred million yuan, an increase over the previous year.10.68%; Added value of secondary industry228.52100 million yuan, down from last year.611.46%; Added value of tertiary industry495.71100 million yuan, an increase over the previous year.121.85%. Tertiary industry proportionGDPThe specific gravity of is respectively17.6%、26%、56.4%. At the same time, on the whole, agricultural production rose slightly, industrial production made great strides, service industry developed at a high speed, investment in fixed assets maintained rapid growth, the consumer market recovered well, fiscal revenue increased steadily, and expenditure decreased.

Iii. Implementation of the Plan for the Last Year

according to2022Analysis of construction land supply ledger in,2022The city has a total supply of construction land615.0635Hectares, including commercial service land.26.1120Hectares, industrial and mining storage land47.0437Ha, residential land23.9107Hectares, public management and public service land61.6935Hectares, transportation land375.3252Hectares, waters and land for water conservancy facilities80.9784Hectares, special land0Ha.

Jing Yu2022Comparative analysis of the annual supply plan shows that the actual total supply of construction land in the whole year is more planned.652.3392Ha, decrease37.2757Ha. From the perspective of supply structure, the actual supply of commercial service land is more than planned.48.05Ha, decrease21.938Hectares; The actual supply of industrial and mining storage land is more planned197.8506Ha, decrease150.8069Hectares; The actual supply of residential land is more than planned29.2286Hectares,
decrease5.3179Hectares; The actual supply of land for public management and public service is planned.128.2615Ha, decrease66.568Hectares; The actual supply of transportation land is more planned194.7614Ha, increase180.5638Hectares; The actual supply of land for water areas and water conservancy facilities is more planned16.8511Ha, increase64.1273Hectares; The actual supply of special land is more planned37.336Ha, decrease37.336Hectares, as shown in the table below and below.

tableoneDanzhou city2022Table on Implementation of State-owned Construction Land Supply Plan in

Unit: hectares,

Planned supply

48.05

197.8506

29.2286

128.2615

194.7614

16.8511

37.336

652.3392

Actual supply

26.112

47.0437

23.9107

61.6935

375.3252

80.9784

0

615.0635

supply

-21.938

-150.8069

-5.3179

-66.568

180.5638

64.1273

-37.336

-37.2757

differential value

Plan implementation rate

54.34%

23.78%

81.81%

48.10%

192.71%

480.55%

0.00%

94.29%

pictureoneDanzhou city2022Figure on the implementation of state-owned construction land supply plan in.

Four, this year’s planning process

(A) the preparatory stage

Hold a work deployment meeting, organize land use, planning, reserve center, farmland protection and other departments, form a special work class, be fully responsible for the preparation of the state-owned construction land supply plan in our city, clarify the division of responsibilities, implement the work funds, and determine the technical unit for the preparation of this plan in an open way.

Release preparation2023Notice of the annual state-owned construction land supply plan. To the Municipal Development and Reform Commission, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, the Municipal Transportation Bureau and other relevant departments, as well as the township governments and parks.2023Notice of the annual state-owned construction land supply plan. The contents include suggestions from relevant departments, township governments, parks, etc. on the supply plan of state-owned construction land in this area during the planning period, and the demand for state-owned construction land in this industry and field during the planning period.

Carry out basic data collection. Arrange personnel to go to various departments to collect relevant materials for supply planning, including but not limited to the master plan (space class)2015—2030) data, batch but not for data, reserve land data, etc.

(2) Investigation and analysis stage

According to the relevant information collected, the investigation and analysis work is carried out, mainly including supply potential analysis and construction land demand analysis. Among them, in the aspect of supply potential analysis, combined with the collected data of batch but not supply and land reserve, combined with the relevant planning situation to make a comprehensive determination. In terms of demand for construction land, combined with economic and social development and land use, according to different land types, the corresponding forecasting methods are selected for calculation.

(III) Draft plan formulation stage

According to the investigation and analysis stage, the supply potential and construction land demand determined are comprehensively determined.2023In the state-owned construction land supply plan indicators, and in accordance with the "State-owned construction land supply plan" (Trial) requirements, the preparation of the draft supply plan.

(4) stage of soliciting opinions

Submit the prepared draft supply plan to all relevant departments and units for comments, and improve the draft plan according to the feedback.

(five) the stage of approval and publication

After the preparation of the supply plan is completed, it will be announced as required after being approved by the Municipal People’s Government.

Five, the technical route and method of this year’s plan

(1) Technical route

Through the analysis of land approved but not supplied, idle land and government reserve land within the jurisdiction, the state-owned construction land that can be supplied during the planned period is comprehensively determined. At the same time, according to the investigation and analysis of the economic and social development, land use and real estate market in this area, the total demand and structure of state-owned construction land are predicted by scientific methods, and the demand for state-owned construction land is comprehensively determined in combination with the audit of the demand for state-owned construction land declared by relevant government departments at the same level, township people’s governments and industrial parks.

Combined with the amount of state-owned construction land that can be supplied and the demand of state-owned construction land in the planned period, the planned indicators of state-owned construction land supply are determined as a whole, and the planned indicators of state-owned construction land supply can be decomposed according to the administrative area, land use and supply mode. The specific technical route is shown in the following figure:

picture2Technical Route of State-owned Construction Land Supply Planning

(2) Working methods

1.Scientifically and rationally analyze the supply potential of state-owned construction land

When analyzing the supply potential of state-owned construction land, we should comprehensively consider the influence of land use status, planning, ownership status and expropriation on land supply, focus on the land use status and overall planning data, and analyze the potential of land that has not been supplied, government reserve land and idle land according to the planning implementation status, so as to determine the source and scale of potential supply of state-owned construction land during the planning period.

2.Scientifically predict the demand for state-owned construction land

When forecasting the demand for state-owned construction land, it should be carried out on the basis of full investigation and analysis of the economic and social development, land use and real estate market in this area, focusing on the changing trend of construction land supply in previous years, and selecting a realistic forecasting method to forecast the demand for state-owned construction land. According to the requirements of "Standard for the Planning of State-owned Construction Land Supply" (for Trial Implementation), the index prediction methods include trend prediction method, linear regression method, exponential smoothing method, land quota index method and grey model method.

3.Comprehensive balance to determine the scale of planned supply indicators

In the final determination of the supply index scale, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the supply potential of state-owned construction land, the predicted demand of state-owned construction land and the demand of state-owned construction land reported by various departments and units, proceed from the demand and actual supply capacity, comprehensively balance and make overall arrangements to determine the final supply index scale.

VI. Process and basis of determining indicators

(A) Analysis of the supply capacity of construction land

Combined with the actual situation of our city, the potential sources of state-owned construction land mainly include land approved but not supplied by our city, idle land and government reserve land. After inquiring about the dynamic monitoring and supervision system of land use, the existing land area of our city is256.5291Ha, idle land area is80.5624Ha. At the same time, the reserve area of our municipal government is3157.73Ha.

(2) Forecast and analysis of construction land demand

1.Forecast content

The demand forecast of state-owned construction land mainly includes the total demand forecast of state-owned construction land and various types of state-owned construction land such as commercial service land, industrial and mining storage land, residential land, public management and public service land, transportation land, water area and water conservancy facilities land and special land during the planning period.

2.Predictive thinking

Based on the investigation and analysis of Danzhou’s economic and social development, land use and real estate market, according to different land types, the corresponding forecasting methods are selected to scientifically predict the total demand and structure of state-owned construction land; At the same time, the demand for state-owned construction land is comprehensively determined in combination with the review of the demand for state-owned construction land declared by relevant departments and units.

3.prediction technique

The forecasting methods of state-owned construction land demand generally include trend forecasting method, linear regression method, exponential smoothing method, land quota index method and grey model method.

(oneTrend prediction method: according to the historical data of existing land supply, a curve is fitted to reflect the changing trend of total land supply, and then the land demand in the planned period is estimated according to this trend curve.

Trend prediction method, also known as trend curve analysis, curve fitting or curve regression, is the most studied and popular quantitative prediction method so far. It is to fit a curve according to the known historical data, so that this curve can reflect the growth trend of the load itself, and then according to this growth trend curve, the load forecast value at that moment is estimated for a certain point in the future.

Commonly used trend models include linear trend model, polynomial trend model, linear trend model, logarithmic trend model, power function trend model, exponential trend model and logistic model.(logistic)Model, Gong Botz (gompertz) model, etc., the process of seeking trend model is relatively simple, and this method itself is a definite external heap, processing historical data. The process of fitting curve and obtaining simulated curve does not consider random error. In principle, the accuracy of the curve fitted by trend analysis is consistent for the whole fitting interval. In many cases, choosing a suitable trend curve can really give a better prediction result. However, the results given by different models will vary greatly, and the key to use is to choose the appropriate model according to the regional development.

①Linear trend model

Linear trend prediction method, also known as "linear trend prediction method", is a prediction method used when the time series data in the observation period are close to a straight line and show an approximate straight line rise and fall. The first key is to get the trend straight line, so as to get the predicted value by using the extension of the trend straight line. The equation for finding the trend straight line is:

Yt=a+bt

Formula:t——The independent variable is any selected.tvalue;

Yt——Dependent variable, for the selectedtValue, corresponding variableYThe average estimated value of, that is, the firsttForecast value of forecast period;

a、b——Unknown parameter.

The steps of linear trend prediction method are as follows:

A.Drawing with known data to determine the straight line trend.

B.Find the straight line of changing trend. You can use the intuitive method or the least square method.

C.Using the extension of the changing trend straight line, the predicted value is determined.

②Polynomial trend model

Polynomial curve trend prediction method is a form of curve trend, which uses polynomial equation to match the real curve trend of time series data to predict the future.

The equation for finding the trend straight line is:

Yt=b0+b1t+b2t2+…+bktk

Formula:t——The independent variable is any selected.tvalue

Yt——Dependent variable, for the selectedtValue, corresponding variableYThe average estimated value of, that is, the firsttThe predicted value of the prediction period;

b0、b1、b2、bk——Unknown parameter

The steps of polynomial trend prediction method are as follows:

A.Drawing with known data to determine the straight line trend.

B.Find the changing trend curve. You can use the intuitive method or the least square method.

C.Using the extension of the changing trend straight line, the predicted value is determined.

(2) linear regression method:According to the principle of mathematical statistics, a large number of experimental statistical data are analyzed and processed, and the variables with linear relationship with land supply are found, then the functional relationship between them is established, and finally the land demand is predicted according to the change of independent variables.

①Univariate linear regression model

Is based on independent variablesxAnd dependent variableYThe relationship between, establishxandYBased on the linear regression equation. Because market phenomena are generally influenced by many factors, not just one. Therefore, the application of one-dimensional linear regression analysis and prediction method must make a comprehensive analysis of various factors affecting market phenomena. Only when there is a variable among many influencing factors that has a significantly higher influence on the dependent variable than other factors can we use it as an independent variable and apply the market forecasting method of univariate correlation regression analysis to forecast.

The prediction model of unary linear regression analysis method is:

Y_t=a+bx_t

Where:x_t——tThe value of the independent variable;

Y_t——tThe value of the dependent variable;

a、b——Parameters of linear regression equation with one variable.

②Multiple linear regression model

When the change of the dependent variable is influenced by several important factors, it is necessary to use two or more influencing factors as independent variables to explain the change of the dependent variable. This is multiple regression, also known as multiple regression. When there is a linear relationship between multiple independent variables and dependent variables, the regression analysis is multivariate linear regression.

The prediction model of multiple linear regression analysis is:

In the formula,b₀Is a constant term,b_one、b₂、b_three…b_kIs the regression coefficient,b_oneforx₂、x_three、x_four…x_kWhen fixed,x_oneFor each additional unit pairyThe effect of, namelyx_onerightyPartial regression coefficient of; in like manner; in a similar wayb₂forx_one,x_kWhen fixed,x₂For each additional unit pairyThe effect of, namelyx₂rightyPartial regression coefficient of.If two independent variablesx_one,x₂The same dependent variableyWhen there is a linear correlation, the binary linear regression model can be described as:y=b₀+b_onex_one+b₂x₂+e.

When establishing a multivariate regression model, in order to ensure that the regression model has excellent explanatory power and prediction effect, we should first pay attention to the selection of independent variables, and its criteria are:

A.The independent variable must have a significant influence on the dependent variable and show a close linear correlation;

B.The linear correlation between independent variables and dependent variables must be true, not formal;

C.Independent variables should be mutually exclusive, that is, the degree of correlation between independent variables should not be higher than that between independent variables and dependent variables;

D.Independent variables should have complete statistical data, and their predicted values are easy to determine.

At the same time, when multiple linear regression analysis is adopted, the model should be tested and evaluated.

A.Determination of fitting degree

Multiple determinable coefficients in multivariate linear regressionr²It is the change explained by the regression equation in the total change of the dependent variable.(Regression sum of squares)The proportion,R²The greater the regression, the stronger the fitting degree of each regression party to the sample data points, and the closer the relationship between all independent variables and dependent variables. The calculation formula is:

among

B.standard error of estimate

Estimation standard error, that is, dependent variable.yThe standard error between the actual value of and the estimated value obtained by the regression equation, the smaller the estimated standard error, the better the fitting degree of the regression equation, and the calculation formula is:

Among them,kIs the number of independent variables in the multivariate linear regression equation.

C.Significance test of regression equation

The significance test of regression equation is to test the significance of the whole regression equation, or to evaluate whether the linear relationship between all independent variables and dependent variables is close. Usually usedFInspection,FThe calculation formula of statistics is:

According to a given significance levela,freedom(k,n-k-1)checkFDistribution table, get the corresponding critical value.Fa, ifF>FaThen the regression equation is significant and the regression effect is significant;F<Fa, the regression equation is not significant and the regression effect is not significant.

D.Significance test of regression coefficient

The significance test of regression coefficients is to test whether each regression coefficient in the regression model is significant, so that only those factors that have significant influence on the dependent variables are retained in the model. When testing, calculate statistics first.t_i; Then according to the given significance levela,freedomn-k-1checktDistribution table, critical value oft_aort_a/2,t>t−aort_a/2, the regression coefficientb_iand0There is a significant difference, on the contrary, it is related to0There is no significant difference. StatistictThe calculation formula of is:

amongC_ijIs the inverse matrix of solving regression coefficient matrix in multivariate linear regression equation.(x’x)The first on the main diagonal of.jElements.

E.Multiple collinearity discrimination

If the regression coefficienttThe test fails, which may be caused by the fact that the independent variable corresponding to this coefficient is not significant to the shadow level of the dependent variable. At this time, this independent variable should be eliminated from the regression model, and a simpler regression model should be established or the independent variable should be replaced. It may also be caused by collinearity between independent variables, so we should try to reduce the influence of collinearity at this time.

Multicollinearity means that there is a strong linear relationship between independent variables in the multivariate linear regression equation. If this relationship exceeds the linear relationship between dependent variables and independent variables, the stability of the regression model will be destroyed and the estimation of regression coefficients will be inaccurate. It should be pointed out that in the multiple regression model, multicollinearity is inevitable, as long as multicollinearity is not too serious. Judging whether there is severe multicollinearity in multivariate linear regression equation, the determinable coefficient between every two independent variables can be calculated separately.r, ifr2>R2Or close toR2, we should try to reduce the influence of multilinear. The conditional number of eigenvalue of correlation coefficient matrix between independent variables can also be calculated.k=λ1/λp(λ1Is the largest eigenvalue,λpIs the minimum eigenvalue.),k<100, there is no multi-focus collinearity; if100≤k≤1000, there is a strong multicollinearity between independent variables, ifk>1000There is serious multicollinearity between independent variables. The way to reduce multicollinearity is mainly to change the value of independent variables, such as changing absolute numbers into relative numbers orAverage, or replace other independent variables.

F.D.Wtest

When the regression model is based on dynamic data, the error termeIt is also a time series. If the items of the error series are independent of each other, there is no correlation between the items of the error series. If there is a close correlation between the error series, the established regression model cannot express the real change relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variables.D.WTest is the autocorrelation test of error sequence.

(three) exponential smoothing method:The smoothing coefficient is used to correct and smooth the statistical data reflecting the historical changes of variables, so as to analyze the evolution trend of variables and predict the land demand in the planned period. This method gives different weights to the past data. Generally speaking, the closer data has less influence on the future, while the farther data has greater influence on the future, so the closer data has greater weight, while the farther data has less weight. If the time series data points of land supply show a linear trend, the linear or quadratic exponential smoothing method can be used to predict.:If the data points show a nonlinear trend, the cubic exponential smoothing method is used to predict.

Exponential smoothing method is put forward by Brown, who thinks that the situation of time series is stable or regular, so time series can be reasonably postponed. He thinks that the recent past situation will continue in the future to some extent, so he puts greater weight on the recent information.

Exponential smoothing method is a time series analysis and prediction method developed on the basis of moving average method. It predicts the future of the phenomenon by calculating the exponential smoothing value and cooperating with a certain time series prediction model. The principle is that the exponential smoothing value of any period is the weighted average of the actual observation value of this period and the exponential smoothing value of the previous period. According to different smoothing times, exponential smoothing methods can be divided into primary exponential smoothing method, secondary exponential smoothing method and tertiary exponential smoothing method.

The basic formula of exponential smoothing method is:S=a*y_t+(1-a)S_t-1In the formula,

S——timetSmooth value of;

y_t——timetActual value of;

S_t-1——timet-1Actual value of;

a——Smoothing constant, its value range is[0,1];

Initial value determination:

According to the formula:S_one=a*y_one+(1-a)S₀, when you want to use exponential smoothing method to start collecting data, it does not exist.y₀. Unable to produceS₀Naturally, it cannot be found by exponential smoothing formula.S_one, defined by exponential smoothing methodS_oneIs the initial value. The determination of initial value is also an important condition of exponential smoothing process.

If we can find it,y_onePrevious historical data, then, initial valueS_oneThe determination of is not a problem. When the data is less, the whole period average and moving average method can be used.;When there are more data, the least square method can be used. But the exponential smoothing method itself cannot be used to determine the initial value, because the data will be exhausted.

If only fromy_oneAt the beginning of the data, then the methods to determine the initial value are:

(one) takeS_onebe equal toy_one;

(2) After accumulating some data, takeS_oneIs equal to the simple arithmetic average of the previous data, such as:S_one=(y_one+y₂+y_three)/3Wait a minute.

smoothing factoraDetermination of:

In the calculation of exponential smoothing method, the key isαThe value of the size, butαThe value of is easily influenced by subjective factors, so it is reasonably determined.αThe value method of is very important. Generally speaking, if the data fluctuates greatly,αThe value should be larger, which can increase the influence of recent data on the forecast results. If the data fluctuates smoothly,αThe value should be smaller. Theoretical circles generally believe that there are the following methods to choose from:

Empirical judgment method. This method mainly relies on the development trend of time series and the experience of forecasters to make judgments.

oneWhen the time series shows a stable horizontal trend, the smaller one should be selected.αValue, generally available in the0.05～0.20Value between;

2When the time series fluctuates, but the long-term trend changes little, you can choose a slightly larger one.αValue, often0.1～0.4Value between;

threeWhen the time series fluctuates greatly and the long-term trend changes greatly, showing an obvious and rapid upward or downward trend, it is appropriate to choose a larger one.αValue, as can be found in the0.6～0.8Choose values between them to make the prediction model more sensitive and keep up with the changes of data quickly;

fourWhen the time series data is an upward (or downward) trend type,αShould take a larger value, in0.6～oneBetween

Try algorithm. According to the specific time series, refer to the empirical judgment method to roughly determine the rated value range, and then take a few.αValue for trial calculation, the comparison is differentαValue of the prediction standard error, select the smallest prediction standard error.α.

(four) land quota index method:According to the project land quota or production scale land quota, the land demand is calculated according to the project or production scale.

(five) grey model method:Through grey relational analysis, land supply is closely related to GDP, total population, urban population, investment in fixed assets, per capita GDP, output value of secondary industry and output value of tertiary industry. Based on these factors, the grey system model method is used to establish grey.GM(one,one) model to forecast the demand of state-owned construction land in the planning period.GM(one,one) The essence of the model is to generate the original data in a cumulative way, so that the generated data series presents a certain law. The curves of each data series can be approximated by typical curves, and then the approximated curves are used as models. Finally, the predicted values of the model are reduced and reduced once to predict the system. according toCandPThe two indexes can comprehensively evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model. Specific indicators are shown in the following table.

table2Grey model prediction accuracy evaluation index table

good

＞0.95

＜0.35

qualified

＞0.8

＜0.40

barely

＞0.7

＜0.45

Unqualified /disqualification

≤0.7

≥0.45

4.Prediction process

(one) Forecast of the total supply of commercial service land

In recent years, the supply of commercial service land presents a nonlinear change.(The supply situation and trends over the years are detailed in the following table and figure below.)Therefore, exponential smoothing method and grey model method are selected for forecasting.

tablethreeTable of land supply for commercial service

Supply area (hectare)

14.626

6.5192

13.7793

129.2742

66.2202

18.6603

0

4.7472

19.0127

15.1677

26.112

picturethreeChange chart of supply trend of commercial service land

①exponential smoothing

According to the time series data points of land supply in Danzhou city over the years, the land supply presents a nonlinear trend, so quadratic exponential smoothing is used to predict the total supply. At the same time, considering that the number of items in the original series is small (less than15Item), initial valueS₀Using the average of the first three periods, smoothing coefficientaAccording to the changing trend, choose0.6till/extremely0.8Between, this choice.0.7Forecast, smoothing results are as follows:

tablefourQuadratic exponential smoothing result table of commercial service land

Quadratic exponential smoothing

—

14.626

10.6537

11.8277

69.4822

73.0727

46.7338

21.4637

10.9983

13.9835

According to the above results, analyze and predict,2023Supply of commercial service land in Danzhou City in=(2*15.1962-13.9835)+(0.4/0.6)*(15.1962-13.9835)=17.2174Ha.

②Grey model method

Grey model method is used to establish grey.GM(1,1) model,GM(1,1) The essence of the model is to generate the original data in a cumulative way, so that the generated data series presents a certain law. The curves of each data series can be approximated by typical curves, and then the approximated curves are used as models. Finally, the predicted values of the model are reduced and reduced once to predict the system. According to the tablethreeThe data in the grey model is established, and the prediction model is obtained as followsx(t+1)=-528.808035exp(-0.085412t)+543.434035. After calculation,2023The total annual demand for commercial service land is18.4273Ha.

③Determination of supply

There is a certain gap between the supply of commercial service land predicted by exponential smoothing method and grey model method, so the supply is determined by weighted average method, and the weight of the prediction result by exponential smoothing method is0.3, the weight of grey model prediction results is0.7, so2023Annual supply of commercial service land in Danzhou, namely17.2174hektare×0.3+18.4273hektare×0.7=18.0643Ha.

(2) Forecast of total supply of industrial, mining and storage land

In recent years, the supply of industrial and mining storage land has shown a nonlinear change.(The supply situation and trends over the years are detailed in the following table and figure below.)Therefore, exponential smoothing method and grey model method are selected for forecasting.

tablefiveTable of supply of industrial, mining and storage land

Supply area (hectare)

97.9704

158.0389

9.5383

56.796

11.7448

2.2553

8.6667

5.39

8.0907

114.5278

47.0437

picturefourChange chart of supply trend of industrial and mining storage land

①exponential smoothing

According to the time series data points of land supply in Danzhou city over the years, the land supply presents a nonlinear trend, so quadratic exponential smoothing is used to predict the total supply. At the same time, considering that the number of items in the original series is small (less than15Item), initial valueS₀Using the average of the first three periods, smoothing coefficientaAccording to the changing trend, choose0.6till/extremely0.8Between, this choice.0.7Forecast, smoothing results are as follows:

tablesixQuadratic exponential smoothing result table of industrial and mining storage land

Quadratic exponential smoothing

—

97.9704

127.404

72.2988

59.743

35.0938

16.7845

11.159

7.8259

7.6557

According to the above results, analyze and predict,2023Supply of commercial service land in Danzhou City in=(2*82.4443-7.6557)+(0.4/0.6)*(82.4443-7.6557)=207.0912Ha.

②Grey model method

Grey model method is used to establish grey.GM(1,1) model,GM(1,1) The essence of the model is to generate the original data in a cumulative way, so that the generated data series presents a certain law. The curves of each data series can be approximated by typical curves, and then the approximated curves are used as models. Finally, the predicted values of the model are reduced and reduced once to predict the system. According to the tablefiveThe data in the grey model is established, and the prediction model is obtained as followsx(t+1)=-488.478801exp(-0.167882t)+586.449201. After calculation,2023The total annual demand for industrial, mining and storage land is14.0865Ha.

③Determination of supply

There is a certain gap between the supply of commercial service land predicted by exponential smoothing method and grey model method, so the supply is determined by weighted average method, and the weight of the prediction result by exponential smoothing method is0.3, the weight of grey model prediction results is0.7, so2023Annual supply of commercial service land in Danzhou, namely207.0912hektare×0.3+14.0865hektare×0.7=71.9879Ha.

(three) Prediction of total supply of residential land

The supply of residential land has shown a nonlinear change in recent years.(The supply situation and trends over the years are detailed in the following table and figure below.)Therefore, exponential smoothing method and grey model method are selected for forecasting.

tablesevenTable of residential land supply

Supply area (hectare)

151.6230

84.7345

12.6994

172.4707

95.6235

21.6543

9.0995

18.8548

14.1311

41.08939

23.9107

picturefiveChange chart of residential land supply trend

①exponential smoothing

According to the time series data points of land supply in Danzhou city over the years, the land supply presents a nonlinear trend, so quadratic exponential smoothing is used to predict the total supply. At the same time, considering that the number of items in the original series is small (less than15Item), initial valueS₀Using the average of the first three periods, smoothing coefficientaAccording to the changing trend, choose0.6till/extremely0.8Between, this choice.0.7Forecast, smoothing results are as follows:

tableeightResults Table of Quadratic Exponential Smoothing for Residential Land

Quadratic exponential smoothing

—

151.623

118.8476

63.8852

112.1455

108.3931

65.5534

34.0354

23.7603

18.1172

According to the above results, analyze and predict,2023Supply of commercial service land in Danzhou City in=(2*33.4722-18.1172)+(0.4/0.6)*(33.4722-18.1172)=59.0639Ha.

②Grey model method

Grey model method is used to establish grey.GM(1,1) model,GM(1,1) The essence of the model is to generate the original data in a cumulative way, so that the generated data series presents a certain law. The curves of each data series can be approximated by typical curves, and then the approximated curves are used as models. Finally, the predicted values of the model are reduced and reduced once to predict the system. According to the tablesevenThe data in the grey model is established, and the prediction model is obtained as followsx(t+1)=-630.407080exp(-0.157355t)+782.030080. After calculation,2023The total annual demand for commercial service land is19.0282Ha.

③Determination of supply

There is a certain gap between the supply of commercial service land predicted by exponential smoothing method and grey model method, so the supply is determined by weighted average method, and the weight of the prediction result by exponential smoothing method is0.3, the weight of grey model prediction results is0.7, so2023Annual supply of commercial service land in Danzhou, namely59.0639hektare×0.3+19.0282hektare×0.7=31.0388Ha.

(four) public management and total supply forecast of public service land

2012till/extremely2022The land supply table for public management and public service in Danzhou City in is as follows.

tableninePublic management and public service land supply table

Supply area (hectare)

4.8859

8.3252

6.2912

23.3274

73.0472

4.8624

277.4393

38.4855

24.5158

52.935

61.6935

picturesixTrend diagram of public management and public service land supply

As can be seen from the above table, the annual land supply for public management and public service is not regular, and it is basically on demand. Therefore, the demand forecast for public management and public service land adopts the quota index method, combined with the supply of public management and public service land in recent years and the declarations of various departments.2023Comprehensive determination of annual land demand, etc.2023The annual land supply for public management and public service in Danzhou City is160.7153Ha.

(five) Forecast of the total supply of transportation land

2012till/extremely2021The land supply table for public management and public service in Danzhou City in is as follows.

table10Transportation land supply table

Supply area (hectare)

15.5478

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

402.8138

228.2059

375.3252

picturesevenChange chart of transportation land supply trend

As can be seen from the above table, the annual land supply of transportation land is not regular, and it is basically supplied on demand. Therefore, the demand forecast of transportation land adopts the quota index method, combined with the supply of transportation land in recent years and the declarations of various departments.2023Comprehensive determination of annual land demand, etc.2023The annual transportation land supply in Danzhou City is1157.426Ha.

(six) Prediction of total land supply for water areas and water conservancy facilities

According to the statistical analysis of previous land supply data in our city, only2022Annual supply of water areas and land for water conservancy facilities80.9784Hectares, the regularity of land supply is not strong, and it is basically on-demand supply. Therefore, the quota index method is adopted in this water area and water conservancy facilities land demand forecast, combined with the declaration of various departments.2023Comprehensive determination of annual land demand, etc.2023The annual land supply for water areas and water conservancy facilities in Danzhou City is7.5313Ha.

(seven) Prediction of total supply of special land

2012till/extremely2022The supply table of special land in Danzhou City in is as follows.

table11Special land supply table

Supply area (hectare)

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

6.6349

0.0000

0.0000

22.0647

0.0000

16.0755

0.0000

pictureeightChange chart of special land supply trend

As can be seen from the above table, the annual land supply regularity of special land is not strong, and this kind of land is not supplied every year. Therefore, the quota index method is adopted for this special land demand forecast, combined with the supply of special land in recent years and the declarations of various departments.2023Comprehensive determination of annual land demand, etc.2023The annual supply of special land in Danzhou City is2.0013Ha.

(eight) Determination of the total supply of construction land

①Prediction of total supply of construction land

According to the above forecast results of commercial service land, residential land, industrial and mining storage land, public management and public service land, transportation land, water area and water conservancy facilities land and special land,2023The annual total supply of state-owned construction land in Danzhou City is1438.8076Ha, see the table below.

tabletwelveDanzhou city2023Annual forecast of total supply of construction land

one

shangfu land

18.0643

2

mining warehouse land

71.9879

three

residential land

31.0388

four

Public management and public service land

160.7153

five

Transportation land

1157.426

six

Land for waters and water conservancy facilities

7.5313

seven

Special land use

2.0013

total

1448.7649

②Determination of total supply of construction land

Declared by various departments after analysis2023Annual land demand,2023In the city’s construction land demand for1973.1793Hectares, more than the total forecast.524.4144Ha, see the table below for details:

table13Danzhou city2023Annual Table of Total Land Demand of Various Departments

one

shangfu land

109.4474

2

mining warehouse land

446.8173

three

residential land

89.2407

four

Public management and public service land

160.7153

five

Transportation land

1157.426

six

Land for waters and water conservancy facilities

7.5313

seven

Special land use

2.0013

total

1973.1793

Through comparison, Danzhou City is finally determined from the perspective of ensuring social and economic development of Danzhou City, taking into account the economical and intensive land use and actual demand.2023The total annual demand for state-owned construction land is1973.1793Ha (see table below), of which the predicted value of commercial service land is18.0643Hectares, there is a big gap between the actual demand and the demand declared by various departments. Therefore, based on the demand declared by various departments this year, it is decided to adjust the commercial service land to109.4474Hectares; The predicted value of industrial and mining storage land is71.9879Hectares, there is a big gap with the demand declared by various departments. Therefore, based on the demand declared by various departments this year, it is decided to adjust the industrial, mining and storage land to446.8173Hectares; The predicted value of residential land is31.0388Hectares, there is a big gap with the actual demand, and considering the requirements of affordable housing construction, it is decided to adjust the residential land to89.2407Hectares; The remaining public management and public service land, transportation land, water area and water conservancy facilities land and special land have not changed.

table14Danzhou city2023The annual plan to supply the total amount of construction land.

one

shangfu land

109.4474

2

mining warehouse land

446.8173

three

residential land

89.2407

four

Public management and public service land

160.7153

five

Transportation land

1157.426

six

Land for waters and water conservancy facilities

7.5313

seven

Special land use

2.0013

total

1973.1793

Seven, planning results

(A) the total supply of construction land

2023The annual planned supply area of state-owned construction land in Danzhou City is1973.1793Ha, of which the stock of construction land.95.7803Ha, new construction land1877.3990Ha.

(B) Construction land supply structure

According to the supply structure,2023State-owned construction land planned to be supplied in 2008, medium and commercial service land.109.4474Hectares, proportion5.55%; residential land89.2407Hectares, proportion4.52%; mining warehouse land446.8173Hectares, proportion22.64%; Public management and public service land160.7153Hectares, proportion8.14%; Transportation land1157.426Hectares, proportion58.66%; Land for waters and water conservancy facilities7.5313Hectares, proportion0.38%;Special land use2.0013Hectares, proportion0.11%.

(3) Layout of construction land supply

From the perspective of supply layout, the supply of state-owned construction land is mainly distributed in Yangpu area, that large area and Wang Wu Industrial Park, among which Yangpu area accounts for the largest proportion, with an area of1183.9075Hectares; That large area is second, with an area of258.5426Ha.

(D) Construction land supply mode

The supply methods of state-owned construction land include allocation, transfer, lease, investment at a fixed price or shareholding. According to the provisions on transferring the right to use state-owned construction land through bidding, auction and listing (Decree No.39), industrial, commercial clothing, tourism, entertainment and commercial housing and other business land must be sold in the form of bidding, auction and hanging. Therefore, the commercial clothing land, commercial housing land and industrial and mining storage land supplied this year will be sold in the form of bidding, auction and hanging. Judging from the relevant forms collected, the land projects in public management and public service land, transportation land, water area and water conservancy facilities land and special land all meet the allocation requirements, and the land will be supplied by allocation. To sum up,2023In the total supply of state-owned construction land in Danzhou City in the year, land is supplied by means of transfer.591.126Hectares, by way of allocation for land.1382.0533Ha.

　　The RCEP agreement consists of a preface, 20 chapters and a four-part commitment table, with a total of 56 annexes, totaling more than 14,000 pages, with a huge content and a wide range of topics. The head of the International Department of the Ministry of Commerce introduced the general situation of RCEP in the fields of goods trade, service investment and other rules.

　　(1) Trade in goods

　　First, RCEP members have generally achieved a high level of liberalization.After the agreement comes into effect, more than 90% of the goods trade in the region will eventually achieve zero tariff. The main product is to reduce the tax immediately to zero and reduce the tax to zero within 10 years, which is expected to benefit enterprises and consumers in various countries in a short time.

　　Judging from the zero tariff level among members.China’s commitment to the 10 ASEAN countries, Australia and New Zealand is about 90%. Except Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, other ASEAN members, Australia and New Zealand promised me a slightly higher proportion. I promised Japan and South Korea 86% of the final zero-tariff items, while Japan and South Korea promised me 88% and 86% respectively.

　　Judging from the specific products that enterprises pay attention to.Take several major ASEAN countries as examples. For example, on the basis of the original China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, Indonesia cancelled tariffs on processing aquatic products, cosmetics, plastics, rubber, luggage, clothing, shoes and boots, marble, glass, steel products, engines, televisions, automobiles, spare parts and motorcycles. Malaysia has further opened its market to me for processing aquatic products, cocoa, cotton yarn and fabrics, chemical fiber, stainless steel, some industrial machinery and equipment and parts, automobiles and motorcycles. The Philippines has further granted me zero tariff treatment on pharmaceutical products, plastics and their products, chemical fibers and fabrics, clothing, textiles, shoes, glass and its products, steel products, engine parts, air conditioners, washing machines and other electromechanical products, automobiles and parts. On the basis of the original China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, China also opened its market to ASEAN on canned pineapple, pineapple juice, coconut juice, pepper, diesel oil, some chemicals, paper products and some auto parts. If you want to know the specific tax reduction data of each member, you can log on to the free trade zone service network and download the goods concession tables of various countries for inquiry, so that you can intuitively see the tax reduction range and duration of the products concerned.

　　Second, another highlight of RCEP in the field of goods trade is the accumulation rule of origin.If RCEP’s commitment to tariff concessions on goods is to plan tax reduction arrangements at the national level, then RCEP’s rules of origin accumulation are a new guide for how to enjoy benefits at the enterprise level. The accumulation of origin is widely known as the most eye-catching achievement in the field of RCEP goods trade.

　　According to the rule of origin accumulation, when determining the origin qualification of products, the original materials of other RCEP member countries can be accumulated to meet the origin standard of 40% value-added of final export products, so that it is easier to enjoy preferential tariffs. The specific provisions and practical operation of the relevant rules of origin will be explained in detail by experts from the General Administration of Customs later.

　　In a word, the cumulative rule of origin is conducive to further expanding our exports, promoting the trade of intermediate products, and stabilizing and strengthening the regional supply chain, which enterprises must master carefully.

　　Thirdly, in terms of goods trade facilitation, RCEP members have also reached a series of high-level rules on customs procedures, inspection and quarantine, and technical standards.With the implementation of these facilitation rules, RCEP will significantly reduce the cost of intra-regional trade, enhance the competitiveness of products in the region, and gradually exert the trade creation effect, bringing more business opportunities to enterprises and more choices and benefits to consumers.

　　(B) on trade and investment in services

　　Service trade and investment are also the key contents in the RCEP market access field. The openness level of service trade and investment of each member is significantly higher than their respective "10+1" agreements, which significantly improves the liberalization and facilitation level of service trade and investment in the region.

　　1. In terms of opening up trade in services,China’s commitment to the opening up of service trade has reached the highest level in the existing free trade agreements. On the basis of about 100 departments promised by China after its accession to the WTO, 22 departments including management consulting, manufacturing R&D and other related services and air transportation have been added, and the commitment level of 37 departments including finance, law, construction and shipping has been improved. Other RCEP member countries also promised to provide greater market access, and some countries also promised to fully open some service sectors. Judging from the service sectors that China focuses on, other parties in RCEP have promised to open up to a greater extent in construction, engineering, tourism, finance, real estate, transportation and other sectors, providing a broad market space for our enterprises to "go global" and expand the layout of regional industrial chains.

　　2. In terms of investment,The RCEP Investment Chapter integrates and upgrades the investment rules of the original "ASEAN 10+1 Free Trade Agreement", and makes comprehensive and balanced investment arrangements in terms of investment market access and investment protection, essentially forming the largest investment agreement in Asia, which is conducive to creating a more stable, open and convenient regional investment environment and injecting strong impetus into attracting foreign investment and promoting development in the region.

　　In terms of investment market access, all member countries adopt the negative list model to make commitments. For China, this is the first time that we have included the negative list of non-service investment in international agreements, and made high-level liberalization commitments in five areas: manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and mining, which greatly expanded the connotation of the list and enhanced the transparency of investment policies. Other parties have also adopted the negative list method to make a higher level of openness commitment. In manufacturing, Japan, Australia and New Zealand are basically fully open except for a few sensitive areas. In agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining, enterprises of member countries are also allowed to enter each other’s markets under certain conditions or requirements. The above arrangement will bring more opportunities to investors from all countries.

　　The level of openness promised in the negative list can only be more and more open and cannot be withdrawn. This is a powerful obligation, which greatly improves the certainty of market access, is conducive to enhancing investment confidence in the region, and promotes the integration of upstream and downstream value chains in the region, which is fully in line with the commitment of the CPC Central Committee that "China is opening wider and wider".

　　3. With regard to the temporary movement of natural persons,In order to promote all kinds of trade and investment activities, each party promises that investors, internal mobile workers, contract service providers, accompanying spouses and their families from all countries in the region can obtain a certain period of residence and enjoy visa convenience if they meet the conditions. Compared with previous agreements, RCEP extends the scope of application of commitments to all categories of natural persons who may move across borders, and the overall level basically exceeds the commitment level of member countries in existing free trade agreements, with high policy transparency. For a big trading and investment country like China, visa convenience, entry and residence have long been the key concerns of enterprises. The conclusion of the RCEP high-level chapter on the movement of natural persons will open up relevant rules in the region and further provide more policy preferences and certainty for Chinese enterprises to "go global" and "bring in" foreign talents.

　　(3) Rules on various fields

　　RCEP has expanded the rule fields of many original "10+1" free trade agreements, and included issues such as intellectual property rights, e-commerce, trade remedy, competition and government procurement in benchmarking international high-level free trade rules, and made provisions that meet regional characteristics and needs.

　　With regard to intellectual property rights,RCEP covers a wide range of contents such as copyright, trademarks, geographical indications, patents, designs, genetic resources, traditional knowledge and folk literature and art, and has significantly improved the level of regional intellectual property protection while taking into account the different development levels of countries. For example, we revised the Copyright Law through RCEP negotiations, which is in line with the international high-standard rules, so that the court has the right to order the destruction of infringing products and manufacturing materials and tools for infringing products, which is of positive significance for strengthening intellectual property protection and creating a better business environment.With regard to e-commerce,In addition to the provisions on electronic authentication and signature, online consumer protection, online personal information protection, network security and cross-border electronic information transmission, RCEP has also included provisions on data flow and information storage in the FTA for the first time under the premise of complying with Chinese laws and regulations. For example, the agreement stipulates that RCEP members should recognize the legal effect of electronic signature and electronic authentication technology, which makes the signing of online contracts, the authorization of electronic payment and the conclusion of online transactions fully protected and recognized by the agreement, providing an important guarantee for the development and prosperity of e-commerce and digital trade in the region.

　　In addition, RCEP includes trade remedy, competition and government procurement.And other specific provisions to ensure fair trade among member countries, oppose market monopoly, protect consumers’ rights and interests, and carry out cooperation in the field of government procurement. (CCTV reporter Zhang Daofeng Ge Xiaowei)

　　CCTV News:Recently, many people have searched for a phrase on the Internet, "the great cause of unfreezing national assets", which is referred to as the great cause of the nation for short. It sounds like a big project, and it is said that the asset statistics unit of this project is trillion! The source of so much money is also quite mysterious. What is the truth behind the legendary "great cause of thawing national assets"?

　　Trillion legacy assets, huge donation farce

　　Wang Lirong, a 58-year-old retired female worker in Qiqihar, Heilongjiang Province, claimed to know the inside story of this mysterious wealth.　

　　Wang Lirong, head of the team of "National Assets Thawing" in Qiqihar City.

　　When the royal families of past dynasties retreated, they buried all these assets in the ground or transferred them abroad as the capital for their future revival. During the Republic of China, the four big families buried all these properties. Now this money is already in trillion units.

　　Last summer, Wang Lirong received calls from some old people who claimed to be Chen Lifu and others, saying that they were the 17th National Congress officials in charge of guarding trillion-dollar assets. These large sums of money were frozen in dozens of overseas banks. If the old people are nearly 100 years old this year, they plan to unfreeze their assets and give them to people with relatively difficult lives before their death. Later, Wang Lirong received the power of attorney and was appointed as the head of the Northeast Region of the "Chinese National Assets Thawing Committee", which was responsible for convening members to apply for donations.　

　　The power of attorney says that each applicant can get 1.5 million yuan, and it is also stamped with the official seals of the so-called People’s Republic of China (PRC) the State Council and the Ministry of Finance. Wang Lirong has also received the identity certificates of the so-called guardian assets, certificates of deposits and withdrawals from foreign banks and so on.

　　Wang Lirong contacted his friend Wang Yun to recruit asset applicants. According to the power of attorney, the money is only given to people with low income or living difficulties such as subsistence allowances, five guarantees and disabilities, and only donated money without charge. Wang Yun not only signed himself up, but also organized hundreds of people. But after waiting for a while, the money was not received. The so-called old man who guarded the assets said that he was guarding the state property and could not move a cent, so they lived in poverty and hoped that everyone would donate some living expenses.　

　　Wang Lirong convened nearly 400 members of the National Assets Thawing Project, but not all of them were willing to pay the money. At this moment, a leader who claimed to be the Ministry of Civil Affairs called and asked everyone to pay the money, so each person paid 200 yuan.

　　But then, almost every week, Wang Lirong received a phone call asking for money, and sometimes he had to pay a tax payment certificate, a certificate of source of funds, and so on. He also said that if the number of people paying fees was not enough, he would not get millions of donations. Wang Yun and other "group leaders" made advances when the disabled residents who were found could not afford the money, resulting in heavy debts.

　　"Guarding the elderly" disappeared in the mountains, and the police searched across provinces.

　　The donations haven’t been sent yet, and the members who have paid many times are anxious. Wang Lirong said that he can’t contact the so-called guardian asset elderly actively, so he can only wait patiently.　

　　In March 2016, the members finally waited for the phone calls of several elderly people who guarded the assets. The other party said that they were going to bring 2 billion yuan in cash to Qiqihar City to hold a press conference and distribute it on the spot. On March 24, 2016, hundreds of members of the national assets thawing industry waited for a long time in a square in Qiqihar City, neither waiting for donations nor seeing the elderly who guarded the assets. However, the gathering of hundreds of people attracted the attention of the public security organs.

　　The police found propaganda documents about "the great cause of thawing national assets" in these backpacks. The police investigation found that the official seals stamped on these documents were all false, and the identity of the person who called Wang Lirong was also false. The so-called Vice Minister Bai of the Ministry of Civil Affairs did not exist. As for the fees collected from the members of "National Assets Thawing Cause", Wang Lirong remitted them to the so-called guardian assets elderly.

　　The police found that this was a typical vicious telecom fraud case. The police investigation found that both the fraudulent phone use place and the bank account trading places where the fraudulent money was collected were in Baise, Guangxi.

　　Qiqihar police rushed to Baise, Guangxi, to collect the surveillance video of the bank being transferred out again, and found that a suspicious middle-aged man entered a deep mountain outside Baise city after handling the transfer business. The police waited at the mountain pass for four days and four nights, and finally arrested five suspects.

　　The suspect confessed that "China Agricultural Bank National Assets Unfreezing Membership Card" and other materials were printed by computer. The suspect also registered many personal information of the deceived people in the notebook, including more than 2,000 people from Shandong Province, Guizhou Province and other provinces.　

　　The suspect Long Changzhong confessed that in addition to the five suspects who were arrested, there were others in Guangxi who were engaged in the "great cause of unfreezing national assets" fraud. Before that, they often shared the information of deceived people all over the country.　

　　Criminal suspect Long Changzhong:

　　There are a lot of these people who have been engaged in the "great cause of unfreezing national assets". Some of them have been engaged for decades, and some of them told us that they started to run in 1997.

　　Trillion scam is still on, daydreaming is still awake.

　　The police investigation found that Wang Lirong did transfer all the money paid by the members to the swindlers, not an accomplice, but also a victim. However, under the condition that the police keep doing ideological education, Wang Lirong is still convinced of the scam.

　　In the process of solving the case, there were old people who claimed to be Chen Cheng, Huang Jingui and so on, calling Wang Lirong constantly. The police told Wang Lirong that Chen Cheng had died in 1965, so it was impossible to call her, but Wang Lirong still believed in the so-called old man who guarded trillions of wealth.　

　　the policeI don’t understand you. What tempts you so much?　

　　Wang LirongBecause it’s true, it’s true!

　　It’s not a new gadget "Daye" or an old routine.

　　According to the police, the "national assets unfreezing scam" appeared about 30 years ago, and the deception methods have been evolving over the years. In recent months, there has even been a unified organization and task deployment. This kind of scam has always grasped the mentality that ordinary people want high returns.

　　One of the tricks: high return bait　

1 million, 5 million, 10 million, in the national assets thawing scam, you can get such a large return without paying money, or just paying a little membership fee, which is obviously an impossible bait.　

　　Deception 2: Pretending to be an authority and forging official documents　

　　In every fraud case of national assets thawing, there are many forged government documents or relevant certificates of financial institutions.

　　The third trick: organized management　

　　In the national assets unfreezing scam, the management of swindlers is very organized. In reality, there are general managers, regional leaders, group leaders, and recruited members. Micro-groups are divided into basic membership entry groups with lower fees, followed by project groups with fees as high as several thousand, and even more advanced management groups that can only be entered by group owners and management. These WeChat groups are also divided into registration, finance, publicity and training, flag raisers and other positions.　

　　Deception 4: the thief shouted to catch the thief.

　　With the successful detection of many cases of "national assets thawing" by the police, many fraudulent WeChat groups under the banner of "national assets thawing" are in full swing, and the owners have asked members to change their avatars and nicknames, and they are not allowed to talk to outsiders. Related videos have also been encrypted by publishers.

　　There are also some key members of the fraudulent WeChat group who claim in the group that all the people investigated by the police cheat in the name of "the great cause of thawing national assets", and they themselves are the real meritorious personnel of "the great cause of thawing national assets" and are protected. Such a "thief shouted to catch a thief" in an attempt to continue to deceive the victims in the group.

On May 29th, Cathay Pacific Airways announced that the name brands hung on the chests of flight attendants in Hong Kong and Taiwan Province were changed from only displaying English names to both Chinese and English names. This move immediately aroused great repercussions among Cathay Pacific employees, fearing that showing people by Chinese names would cause personal safety threats and be easily harassed or harassed by malicious people. What’s more, it is suspected of "pleasing mainland visitors" to denounce this decision.

According to Hong Kong media reports, many groups of employees are discussing the New Deal, criticizing and suggesting that this move is unnecessary, which makes employees’ privacy unprotected. They think that the policy is only to please mainland customers and feel quite angry.

The incident lasted for three days, and finally came to an end with Cathay Pacific shelved the plan, but the discussion about "please mainland customers" and "privacy" continued.

Overseas network quoted overseas media as saying that Cathay Pacific employees’ doubts about "privacy" are not unreasonable, but it is debatable to "please mainland customers". Hong Kong is an international metropolis. Although English is used more frequently in this region than in mainland China and Taiwan Province, we should not forget that Chinese is still its mother tongue. Even though some people emphasize that "Cantonese" is the mother tongue of Hong Kong, the carrier of Cantonese is still Chinese. According to the language usage habits of Hong Kong society, it is more reasonable and grounded to show people in both Chinese and English. As a "Hong Kong as home" enterprise, there is nothing wrong with Cathay Pacific.

The media commented that even if there is an attempt to "please mainland visitors", it should use simplified Chinese characters instead of traditional Chinese characters commonly used in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Inferred further, if the famous brands added with Chinese please mainland tourists, is it suspected that the famous brands only used in English please "foreign tourists"?

Cathay Pacific employees are worried that after displaying their Chinese names, they will be "searched by human flesh". According to the media, throughout Hong Kong’s large and small service industries, many employees show their real names on famous brands. Even if there is a conflict with guests, there are few cases of being "human flesh".

Chinese famous brands are widely used because it can improve the communication efficiency between service personnel and guests. As for whether to use their real names, guests don’t care at all-they pay more attention to the service quality of service personnel.

Original famous brand

Brand name after change (schematic diagram)

What’s more, the English names on many flight attendants’ famous brands are not their real names on their ID cards (many English names on Hong Kong resident ID cards are actually translated into Chinese). If necessary, Cathay Pacific should allow employees to use Chinese aliases to prevent bad customers from harassing employees by using their real names on famous brands.

According to the media, although the incident ended in the compromise of Cathay Pacific, it can reflect some attitudes and positions of some Hong Kong people at present. For example, some Cathay Pacific employees said in an interview that the reason why they don’t want to use Chinese names is "rustic" and lack of "noble westernization color", which affects the chances of making friends with "high-end westernized people" and reduces the chances of "getting rid of poverty". Some scholars have pointed out that this idea is the result of "colonial enslavement education".

Media analysis pointed out that Cathay Pacific’s original intention of using Chinese and English famous brands was to improve service quality. This local Hong Kong enterprise, with a loss of nearly HK$ 600 million (US$ 0.128 in 1 yuan), is experiencing the pain of transformation. With the change of people’s tourism mode and fierce market competition, Cathay Pacific has to focus on service quality in order to survive. However, Cathay Pacific employees have blocked many measures, which makes people have to sweat for Cathay Pacific. In addition, the saying of "please mainland visitors" is also worthy of reflection: what’s wrong with Hong Kong today?

This article is an exclusive manuscript of Observer. The content of the article is purely the author’s personal opinion, and does not represent the platform’s view. It shall not be reproduced without authorization, otherwise legal responsibility will be investigated. Pay attention to the observer network WeChat guanchacn and read interesting articles every day.

North America, which usually refers to the United States, Canada and Greenland, is the most economically developed continent in the world. Its total GDP obviously exceeds that of the European Union, and its per capita GDP far exceeds that of the European Union, making it one of the 15 major regions in the world. The United States and Canada, the two most important countries in North America, are both developed countries with high human development index and high level of economic integration. In the cross-border e-commerce market in North America, besides Amazon and ebay, what other cross-border e-commerce platforms are there in North America? Let me introduce it to you.

The following rankings are in no particular order:

Amazon

Amazon is a multinational e-commerce company headquartered in Seattle, USA. Its business started in an online bookstore, and soon its products became diversified. At present, it is one of the world’s largest online retailers and the 44th in the list of the world’s top 500 companies selected by Fortune magazine in 2016. Its rapid development momentum has made Amazon ranked eighth among the Fortune 500 companies in 2017.

Wish

Wish is an online e-commerce platform that can promote transactions between sellers and buyers. It was founded by Peter Szulczewski and Danny Zhang in 2010. Wish is operated by ContextLogic Inc located in San Francisco, USA. The platform allows sellers to list their products on Wish and sell them directly to consumers.

wal-mart

Wal-Mart is an American multinational retail enterprise headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas. It is the first in the list of the world’s top 500 companies selected by Fortune magazine in 2014-2018. It is also the largest private employer in the world, with more than two million employees and the largest retailer in the world. Wal-Mart is still a family business, and its controlling shareholder is the Walton family, which owns 48% of the shares of Wal-Mart.

eBay

EBay is an online auction and shopping website that manages goods that people around the world can buy and sell online. Ebay was founded in San Jose, California on September 4th, 1995 by Pierre Omidyar under the name of Auctionweb. People can sell goods online on ebay. EBay is an online auction and shopping website that allows people all over the world to buy and sell goods online.

Etsy

Etsy, a large-scale e-commerce platform, accepts sellers to settle in. Mainly for customers and designers, craftsmen and antique collectors to build bridges. The company was founded in June, 2005, and its website https://www.etsy.com/ started in Brooklyn, new york, which was at the climax of Internet startups and new design trends focusing on handmade and retro items. The products Etsy sells include works of art, clothing, jewelry and other decorative items, as well as handicrafts.

tophatter

Tophatter is a new generation of flash platform founded in Silicon Valley, USA, which subverts the traditional exploratory shopping and faces the future game experience. Focusing on the mobile side, the exciting auction experience is highly praised by American consumers, and they are committed to creating an interesting, loving and addictive treasure-hunting experience. People never know what surprises will come next. Global consumers can break through the time and space constraints, and real-time bidding has a high participation and high conversion on the platform, creating a higher participation and sales speed than the average level of the e-commerce industry. 90 seconds to quickly issue orders, the successful sales rate is 85%, and the daily average sales is 150,000 orders. At present, it has 25 million loyal consumers in 14 countries, with a growth rate of over 100% for four consecutive years.

Overstock

Overstock, originally a company selling brand discount goods online, was launched in 1999. Overstock’s main categories are household goods, jewelry, electronic products, clothing, books and audio-visual products. At present, overstock’s products have been sold to 180 countries and regions around the world.

Poshmark

Poshmark is a leading social business market where people from America can buy and sell old and new clothes, shoes and accessories. The company is headquartered in Redwood City, California.

Newegg

Newegg International Mall was founded in 2001 in Southern California, USA. After nearly 20 years of development, it has grown into the first pure technology e-commerce and service platform in the global market. Newegg has a number of e-commerce platforms, such as newegg.com for the United States and 52 countries around the world, newegg.ca for the Canadian market, and neweggbusiness.com for B2B business. The website has more than 26 million independent visitors every month, with more than 38 million registered users, 15.5 million e-mail subscribers and 3.9 million product reviews. The platform has gathered thousands of professional sellers, with more than 1,700 categories of products and more than 40 million commodities! Newegg was selected as the best shopping website by Forbes and other authoritative media, and won a high score of 4.5 stars in the five-star customer satisfaction evaluation in PriceGrabber.com.

The above cross-border e-commerce platforms in North America are introduced. For the cross-border e-commerce platforms in South America, you can click here.

Super-hot car in 2024
To talk about the particularly hot models in 2024, many people may think of the Great Wall H6 and Bi.

Yadiyuan, or Geely Haoyue L or something. But in fact, these domestic cars have been on fire for a long time. What really caused a sensation was Toyota’s new corolla sharp release. This car has a new situation-the price is big and diving! From the original 129,800 to 70,000. This price reduction really surprised me. It seems that Toyota is really cruel this time! I have to say that the Toyota SUV at this price is really quite sincere. Although the size is slightly smaller than that of Haval H6 or Changan CS75 PLUS, the length of the car is 4460mm, the width is 1825mm and the wheelbase is 2640mm, but for home use, it is also adequate. Coupled with the influence of Toyota brand, I think many consumers have to be moved by it.
Appearance appearance
To tell the truth, it’s my first time to go back to the super hot car in 2024.
To talk about the particularly hot cars in 2024, many people may think of the Great Wall H6, BYD Yuan, or Geely Haoyue L or something. But in fact, these domestic cars have been on fire for a long time. What really caused a sensation was Toyota’s new corolla sharp release. This car has a new situation-the price is big and diving! From the original 129,800 to 70,000. This price reduction really surprised me. It seems that Toyota this time

It’s really cruel! I have to say that the Toyota SUV at this price is really quite sincere. Although the size is slightly smaller than that of Haval H6 or Changan CS75 PLUS, the length of the car is 4460mm, the width is 1825mm and the wheelbase is 2640mm, but for home use, it is also adequate. Coupled with the influence of Toyota brand, I think many consumers have to be moved by it.
Appearance appearance
To tell you the truth, when I first saw the photos put by Carola Rui in credithelp.CN, I thought I was mistaken. Although this car is called Carol 003770.CN, its design is different from the traditional Corolla. The front of the car has got a black honeycomb grille with sporty style in 851216.CN, and the lines on the side are also quite emotional, which looks a bit like a small RAVcc694.CN4 The design of the rear of the car is quite simple. There is no penetrating pbhpw.CN taillight that is popular now, and there is no exaggerated exhaust pipe decoration. This low-key style is quite in line with the style of Toyota wg941.CN. Personally, I think this design not only retains the characteristics of Toyota ppxngz.CN, but also adds some sports flavor, which is quite attractive. Especially for those young consumers who want Toyota’s anarkn.CN quality and don’t want to be too dull, it should be quite attractive.
Interior qnjfb.CN is equipped.

Frankly speaking, if we only talk about the exquisiteness and sense of science and technology of the interior, zhangbaohai.CN can’t compare with the domestic SUV at the same price. However, it is not without some bright spots. Pytct.CN’s 7-inch digital LCD instrument panel, coupled with a 10.25-inch suspended gxz11.CN central control panel, looks quite classy. And support the function of mobile phone interconnection, which is definitely enough for dongxin1688.CN to use. I think it’s wise for Toyota to do this. After all, its target customers in zhongzhilai.CN may value practicality and reliability more than fancy configurations. As fanyazj.CN said, a system that is too complicated is easy to go wrong, so it is better to be simple and practical, hzstzs.CN.
power system
When it comes to power, the 1.2Lojizh.CN self-priming engine is installed in the Corolla sharp fuel release version, with a maximum power of 171 HP, which is enough for this class of cars. However, I personally prefer the dual-engine hybrid version. It uses a 2.0Llianxinxue.CN hybrid system, plus E-

CVT gearbox, the comprehensive maximum power can reach joypr.CN196 horsepower. This power level can be compared with that of some 2.0T fuel vehicles in 638650.CN. As a frequent driver, I think this power output is quite reasonable. It’s absolutely no problem for xqus.CN to drive normally, and it won’t fall off the chain at the critical moment. Moreover, the fuel economy c3fx.CN of the hybrid system is also quite good, the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is only 4.1 liters, which is equivalent to only 30 cents per kilometer, and pkxwc.CN still uses No.92 oil.
Benefits of hybrid technology
Although many people are chasing the plug-in hybrid sbvod.CN now, I feel that Toyota insists on using the dual-engine hybrid technology for a reason. First of all, this etpjf.CN system has been verified for so many years, and its reliability is beyond saying. Secondly, its fuel economy has been very strong in nonishop.CN, and it is completely sufficient for normal use. Most importantly, don’t worry about the mrg1.CN life of the battery. I know several friends who drive hybrid cars, and their biggest headache is the attenuation of the electric bfxfq.CN pool. In contrast, Toyota’s dual-engine hybrid is much more worry-free. Considering the popularity of charging piles in 747582.CN, for most users, this self-charging hybrid system may be more practical.
# Golden Autumn Graphic Contest #

　　"Strive for a new era and celebrate a happy year", and the Spring Festival Gala in 2019 is about to kick off. On January 31st, CCTV held a press conference for the Spring Festival Gala in 2019, introducing the highlights of this year’s Spring Festival Gala program and a number of technological innovations and applications, and announced the host lineup of the Spring Festival Gala. Relevant leaders of Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China attended the conference, and the leaders of the Central Radio and Television General Station and the head of the creative team of the Spring Festival Evening introduced the relevant situation.

　　Ingenious creation to create a quality program for the Spring Festival Evening

　　CCTV Spring Festival Gala will accompany you for the New Year. As always, the Spring Festival Gala will bid farewell to the old year and welcome the new year with the audience accompanying the family reunion on New Year’s Eve. This year’s Spring Festival Gala is rich in program forms, with beautiful song and dance programs, majestic and magnificent, and wonderful magic acrobatics. Whether it’s the opening and the colorful flowers at zero o’clock, or the celebration of the whole world and the joy of all over the world in the three venues, a colorful and interesting artistic picture scroll has been laid out.

　　Language programs, which are most concerned by the society and loved by the audience, have also made new breakthroughs this year, showing gratifying results of new people coming forth in large numbers and full of jokes. In terms of subject matter, it is closely related to the hotspots of people’s livelihood and the atmosphere of the times. In the performance lineup, not only the comedian "running with the bulls", who was loved by the audience but rarely appeared on the stage of CCTV Spring Festival Evening, but also the major comedy teams from all over the country gathered together for a "lively and happy reunion".

　　Song and dance programs also usher in the most powerful performance lineup. The younger generation of "dream catchers" who strive for happiness and achieve the future with hard work will be full of youthful vitality and positive sunshine, and will sing the Spring Festival Evening stage.

△2019 Spring Festival Evening host lineup announced

　　The long-awaited host lineup of the 2019 Spring Festival Evening was also announced at the press conference. Kang Hui, Zhu Xun, Ren Luyu, Li Sisi and Nigmat will be the hosts of the main venue in Beijing, and the Jinggangshan branch venue in Jiangxi will be co-hosted by Zhang Yu, the host of the Central Radio and Television Station, and Yin Song, the host of Jiangxi Radio and Television Station. Jilin Changchun Branch will be co-chaired by Zhang Zequn, the host of Central Radio and Television Station, and john young, the host of Jilin Radio and Television Station; John young, the host of China Central Radio and Television Station, and Pang Wei, the host of Shenzhen Satellite TV, will co-chair the Guangdong Shenzhen Branch.

△ Jeikiy, member and deputy editor-in-chief of CCTV Branch of the Central Radio and Television General Station, introduced the preparations for the 2019 Spring Festival Gala.

　　Jeikiy, a member of the party group and deputy editor-in-chief of CCTV General Radio and Television Station, said when introducing the preparations for the 2019 Spring Festival Gala: "This year’s Spring Festival Gala will adhere to integrity and innovation in all aspects from the scale of the party to the programming, from the cast to the theme content, and persist in carrying forward the main theme and delivering positive energy. I believe it will present the audience with a New Year carnival full of laughter and artistic essence."

　　Breakthrough in technological innovation presents unprecedented audio-visual effects.

　　Jiang Wenbo, a member of the CCTV branch of the Central Radio and Television General Station, introduced at the press conference: "The technical team of the Spring Festival Evening in 2019 has been pursuing the application of the latest technology and the most advanced equipment to the production of the Spring Festival Evening program in 2019, in order to create better program services." It can be said that one of the biggest highlights of this year’s Spring Festival Gala is all-round technology drive and technological innovation.

△ Jiang Wenbo, a member of the CCTV branch of the Central Radio and Television General Station, introduced the key technological innovation and application of the Spring Festival Evening in 2019.

　　The creative team of the Spring Festival Evening actively carried out the instruction spirit of the Supreme Leader General Secretary that "the mainstream media must keep up with the times, boldly use new technologies, new mechanisms and new models, accelerate the pace of integration and development, and maximize and optimize the publicity effect", and made technological innovations in 4K, 5G, VR, AR, AI and other aspects, which really brought a perfect combination of art and technology to the Spring Festival Evening. Jeikiy, member and deputy editor-in-chief of the CCTV branch of the Central Radio and Television General Station, said: "This is a powerful connection between technological innovation and artistic innovation on the human cultural and artistic corridor, and it is also an important innovation in the history of the Spring Festival Evening."

　　This year, the Spring Festival Evening will be broadcast live on 4K Ultra HD channel for the first time, and 5.1 surround sound will be used throughout. If users watch the Spring Festival Evening program through the 4K Ultra HD Channel (CCTV-4K) of the Central Radio and Television General Station and configure 4K Ultra HD images +5.1 surround sound, they can bring higher definition, wider color gamut and higher dynamic range video and surround sound audio experience, and they can enjoy the audio-visual effect of the cinema at home.

　　Under the background of the latest and most advanced development trend of mobile communication, the rapid development of 5G network, China Central Radio and Television General Station signed a framework agreement for the cooperation and construction of 5G new media platform with China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom and Huawei at the end of 2018, creating China’s first national-level 5G new media platform, and this 5G network has also been tested and applied in the content transmission of the Spring Festival Evening Branch. On January 13th, the 4K TV transmission test of 5G network was successfully carried out in Shenzhen Branch of the Spring Festival Evening. On New Year’s Eve, two 4K seats based on 5G network will be included in the production system of Shenzhen Branch for the 4K TV live broadcast of the Spring Festival Evening. On January 28th, the real-time transmission of 5G network VR was successfully carried out in Changchun Branch. Users can see the ultra-high-definition VR panoramic signal transmitted through the 5G network in the live broadcast of CCTV news’s media-integrated program "I want to watch the Spring Festival Evening", which is the first time that the 5G network and VR production technology are combined in the live broadcast of TV media-integrated programs. These innovations will bring a refreshing and exciting audio-visual experience to the Spring Festival Evening in 2019.

　　In addition, the technology of this year’s Spring Festival Gala has achieved many breakthroughs. Intelligent speech recognition subtitle production technology was applied for the first time in the Spring Festival Evening. For the first time, 4K Ultra HD AR online packaging technology was used; Fully use a number of special equipment such as Aquila and drones for shooting; Using 4K ultra-high definition main screen and a large number of ice screens in the studio hall No.1 of the main venue will bring fantastic stage effects to the Spring Festival Evening.

　　During the Chinese New Year, the CCTV Square Building and CCTV Tower in Fuxing Road Office of the Central Radio and Television General Station will be launched to "celebrate the new era of China!" The light show with the theme of "CCTV Spring Festival Evening with you at the Central Radio and Television General Station" presents a solemn, festive and shocking three-dimensional effect, creating a festive and strong festive atmosphere.

　　Integrate and spread the whole media to feel the charm of the Spring Festival Evening.

　　This year’s Spring Festival Evening is the first Spring Festival Evening after the establishment of the Central Radio and Television General Station. On the one hand, the Spring Festival Evening communication will be based on the all-media resources of the Central Radio and Television General Station, and multi-platform cooperation will realize the multi-mode, multi-terminal, three-dimensional and full-coverage communication of the Spring Festival Evening. On the other hand, in order to accelerate the development of media integration, this year’s Spring Festival Evening will also actively innovate and develop the content and communication style of media integration, showing the characteristics of multi-screen interaction of media integration.

△ Wang Xiaozhen, director of the CCTV editorial office of the Central Radio and Television General Station, released the all-media communication plan for this Spring Festival Evening.

　　On New Year’s Eve, CCTV comprehensive channel, variety channel, Chinese international channel, military agricultural channel, children’s channel and 4K ultra-high-definition channel will broadcast live the Spring Festival Evening in parallel, and CCTV multi-platform, CCTV audio-visual client, CCTV news client and CCTV news mobile network will also broadcast live simultaneously around the world. In terms of broadcasting, Yangguang China Communications Broadcasting will broadcast the Spring Festival Evening in full synchronization with audio. The voice of China, the voice of literature and art, and the global Chinese information of Guoguang will be inserted into the special program of New Year’s Eve.

　　During the live broadcast of the Spring Festival Evening, CCTV News and CCTV will edit and package the Spring Festival Evening programs and highlights in real time with the broadcast process, and release them on the mobile terminal in the form of short videos. Users can not only participate in the online red envelope grabbing interaction during the live broadcast, but also review short videos at various mobile terminals and forward them to friends and relatives. After the broadcast of the Spring Festival Evening, the main station will launch nearly 50 short video contents of "micro-variety" and "micro-documentary" with the brand of the Spring Festival Evening as the core, introduce the front and back scenes of the Spring Festival Evening, and invite the actors of the Spring Festival Evening to pay a New Year call to the audience. After the broadcast of the Spring Festival Evening, the Spring Festival Evening team and CCTV news new media will also launch a small video to reveal the magic, acrobatics, dance, lighting and special effects of the Spring Festival Evening, so as to satisfy the audience’s curiosity before and after the Spring Festival Evening.

△ Wang Qiang, Deputy Director of Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China Literature and Art Bureau, spoke at the press conference.

　　In the Spring Festival Evening of 2019, we will always adhere to the program keynote of "Happy, Auspicious and Happy", always take the satisfaction of the people as the greatest goal, always adhere to the creative concept of innovation and openness, and make every effort to achieve cross-screen gala.

　　I believe that the Spring Festival Evening in 2019 will definitely bring you new and wonderful memories.

　　On April 25th, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader, who was investigating in Guangxi, came to Di Yang Wharf of Lijiang River in Yangshuo County, Guilin City to listen to the report on the comprehensive management and ecological protection of Lijiang River basin.

　　"In the face of unprecedented difficulties in global environmental governance, the international community should take responsibility and work together to build a community of human and natural life with unprecedented ambition and action." A few days ago, president’s supreme leader pointed out this when attending the leaders’ climate summit in Beijing by video.

　　On the evening of April 22nd, at the invitation of US President Biden, the Supreme Leader of president attended the Leaders’ Climate Summit by video and delivered an important speech entitled "Building a Community of Man and Nature together".

　　No matter at home or abroad, the Supreme Leader General Secretary has repeatedly stood at the height of global ecological civilization construction, advocated building a community of human and natural life together, and constantly contributed China wisdom and China’s strength to creating a new pattern of global environmental governance.

　　Promoting the construction of ecological civilization in the largest developing country "will have a worldwide impact".

　　"The river is a green ribbon, and the mountains are like jasper." The general secretary of the supreme leader has always been concerned about the protection and comprehensive management of the ecological environment in the Lijiang River Basin.

　　"When I was a teenager, I had been to the Lijiang River with several classmates. I remember that after swimming, clothes were dried on the banks of Lijiang River. At that time, the river was blue, and the floodlight bottomed out. " During the National People’s Congress in March 2010, the Supreme Leader recalled the unforgettable experience of visiting the Lijiang River as a teenager.

　　Later, the Lijiang River was once seriously polluted, even the water level dropped, and it was only after unremitting governance that it was restored. The general secretary told us that the Lijiang River is not only the Lijiang River of Guangxi people, but also the Lijiang River of the people of the whole country and the whole world, and it is also a natural heritage shared by all mankind. We must take care of the Lijiang River and protect it scientifically.

　　From the Yangtze River to the Yellow River, from the Lijiang River to the Wujiang River, from Dianchi Lake to Erhai Lake, from Hulun Lake to Dongting Lake, from Qilian Mountain to Qinling Mountain, from Helan Mountain to Wuyishan &hellip; &hellip; The ecological changes in China reflect the historic, turning and overall changes in China’s ecological environment protection.

　　As a participant, contributor and leader of global ecological civilization construction, China has made unremitting efforts to build a community of human and natural life with practical actions. "Promoting the construction of ecological civilization in our largest developing country with a population of more than 1.3 billion and building a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful socialist modern power will have a worldwide impact." In May 2018, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out at the National Ecological Environmental Protection Conference.

　　Nowadays, China has incorporated the concept and construction of ecological civilization into the overall layout of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, and adhered to the development path of ecological priority, green and low carbon. China’s announcement that it will strive to achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 is a major strategic decision based on promoting the building of a community of human destiny and achieving sustainable development, which requires China’s hard work.

　　"Explore the synergy between environmental protection and economic development, job creation and poverty eradication"

　　During this inspection, the local responsible comrades told the General Secretary that in recent years, Guilin has vigorously promoted the "chaos control, water control, mountain control and root cause" of the Lijiang River, and comprehensively cleaned up and rectified quarries and illegal sand mining. The supreme leader pointed out that the worst thing is quarrying. Destroy a mountain and there will never be such a mountain. China and the whole world are such a treasure, so don’t destroy it.

　　For quarrying, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader is deeply touched.

　　In the 1990s, Yucun in Anji, Zhejiang Province became the richest village in Anji by blasting mountains for mining and building cement plants, at the cost of "villagers dare not open windows, and even bamboo shoots are not long on the mountains". In August 2005, the Supreme Leader came to the village and heard that Yucun had changed from "selling stones" to "selling scenery", which was quite touching. During this inspection, the Supreme Leader clearly put forward the "Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets" for the first time, stressing that economic growth should not be promoted at the expense of the environment.

　　Anji Yucun is a representative of the "Thousand Villages Demonstration and Ten Thousand Villages Renovation" project personally promoted by the Supreme Leader during his work in Zhejiang. In 2018, the "Thousand Villages Demonstration and Ten Thousand Villages Renovation" project won the "Guardian of the Earth Award", the highest environmental honor of the United Nations. In the award speech, it was commented: "This extremely successful ecological restoration project shows that bringing environmental protection and economic development together will produce transformative forces."

　　"Explore the synergy between protecting the environment and developing the economy, creating jobs and eradicating poverty, strive to achieve social fairness and justice in the process of green transformation, and increase people’s sense of gain, happiness and security in all countries." Chairman Supreme Leader’s speech at the Leaders’ Climate Summit reached the hearts of the people.

　　"Leave a clean and beautiful world to future generations"

　　"All countries should establish a new development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, seize the historic opportunity of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and promote the post-epidemic world economy &lsquo; Green recovery &rsquo; , bringing together a strong synergy for sustainable development. " In September, 2020, the Supreme Leader’s speech at the general debate of the 75th United Nations General Assembly pointed out the direction for global environmental governance.

　　"The construction of ecological civilization is related to the future of mankind. Building a green home is the common dream of mankind. Protecting the ecological environment and coping with climate change require the concerted efforts of all countries in the world. No country can stay out of it and be immune to it." Adhering to the concept of "teaching people to fish" and through pragmatic and efficient cooperation, China has done its best to help developing countries improve their ability to cope with climate change and achieved fruitful results. From climate remote sensing satellites in Africa to low-carbon demonstration zones in Southeast Asia to energy-saving lamps in small island countries, China’s South-South cooperation on climate change is tangible and effective.

　　Human beings are a community of destiny, and protecting the ecological environment is a common challenge and responsibility facing the whole world. Regarding the construction of ecological civilization, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader has always stressed the need to "calculate the big account, calculate the long-term account, calculate the overall account and calculate the comprehensive account" and "work for the overall situation and future generations".

　　"I firmly believe that as long as we think in one place and work hard in one place, mankind will be able to cope with the global climate and environmental challenges and leave a clean and beautiful world to future generations." The powerful words of the General Secretary have condensed confidence and strength for global environmental governance at key nodes.

Original changguangsuo Light center China optics

Cover image Source: Purdue University

Write | R

01

guide reading

Recently, Sang Mok Park and Michelle A. Visbal-Onufrak of Wilton College of Biomedical Engineering of Purdue University in the United States released a technology in Optica. They have successfully developed an App (mHematology), which can only rely on the smartphone camera to determine the hemoglobin level. The most common clinical laboratory tests can be carried out without blood drawing, which helps to reduce the need for patients to go to outpatient clinics in person, make it easier to monitor critically ill patients, and improve the medical level of low-income and middle-income countries with limited testing laboratories.

02

background introduction

As one of the most common clinical laboratory tests, hemoglobin (Hgb) test is usually used as a preliminary screening for erythropoiesis, so as to check the general health before other specific tests. Spectral analysis is usually used to measure the hemoglobin content of blood because it has a unique light absorption spectrum or fingerprint in the visible wavelength range. However, this type of analysis usually requires huge and expensive optical components, so it is not friendly for patients to deploy this health detection scheme.

The researchers of this project use software to convert the built-in camera of smart phone into hyperspectral imager. Combined with statistical learning technology, this imager can reliably measure hemoglobin level without any hardware modification or accessories, and its mobile application is named MHematography. In addition, the researchers chose the inner eyelid as the sensing site because the microvascular system there is easy to see; It is easy to access and has a relatively uniform red color. The inner eyelid is not affected by skin color, so no personal calibration is needed.

Fig. 1. Spectral super-resolution (SSR) spectroscopy for hemoglobin analysis in mobile health (mHealth).

Image source: vol.7, No.6/June 2020/optica (fig.1).

03

innovation research

The process of hemoglobin measurement using this technology: the patient pulls down the inner eyelid to expose the small blood vessels below. Then, professionals use the smartphone application mHematology to take photos of eyelids (the flash is not aimed directly at the eyeball). Then the spectral super-resolution (SSR) algorithm is used to extract detailed spectral information from RGB photos, and then another algorithm quantifies the hemoglobin content of blood by detecting unique spectral characteristics. Although spectral information is currently extracted by an algorithm on a separate computer, researchers expect that the algorithm can be integrated into mobile applications. In addition, the analysis of multiple linear regression shows that only using RGB data (without the intermediate step of extracting spectral information) may not provide enough information to reliably evaluate the Hgb level in blood.

Figure 2. High-quality spectrum obtained by image-guided hyperspectral scanning system and mHematology mobile application.

Image source: vol.7, No.6/June 2020/optica (fig.2).

3.1

Spectral super-resolution (SSR) algorithm

Hyperspectral data in the visible range is mathematically reconstructed from an RGB image (that is, three-color information from R, G and B channels). In other words, it aims to solve the ill-posed problem as an inverse mapping from down-sampled space (three colors) to dense space (multiple wavelengths).

Fig. 3. Comparison between original spectrum and SSR reconstructed spectrum.

Image source: vol.7, No.6/June 2020/optica (fig.4).

3.2

Quantification of hemoglobin (Hgb) in blood by spectral characteristics

When using a high-resolution spectrum with a large number of wavelengths, we can identify the key potential variables from the spectral intensity, which are responsible for capturing the largest change in the result variable (that is, the blood hemoglobin value). Therefore, this project uses partial least squares regression (PLSR) to transform high-dimensional measured variables into a reduced potential variable space in a way similar to principal component analysis. In order to avoid the possible over-fitting of the prediction model, we determined the optimal number of principal components and verified the spectral blood Hgb prediction model with an independent verification data set.

Figure 4. Performance of SSR blood Hgb measurement using mHematology mobile application.

Image source: vol.7, No.6/June 2020/optica (fig.5).

Clinical tests show that the mobile health test can provide the measurement value equivalent to the traditional blood test, and the measurement range covers a wide range of hemoglobin values. This work shows that data-driven and data-centered light-based research can provide new methods to minimize hardware complexity and promote mobile health. Kim, the leader of the research team, said, "Combining the built-in sensors in today’s smart phones with data-centric methods can speed up innovation and research transformation in this field."

Article information:

The related results were published in Optica with the title of "mhealth spectroscopy of blood hemoglobin with spectral super-resolution".

Paper address:

https://doi.org/10.1364/OPTICA.390409

▶【】

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Original title: "App that can check" blood routine "by taking a photo with your mobile phone"

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