Financial data released in July! Why is it lower than market expectations? Expert interpretation

  According to the financial statistics released by the People’s Bank of China on August 11th, at the end of July, the balance of broad money (M_2) was 285.4 trillion yuan, up 10.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 and 1.3 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 16.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.67 trillion yuan over the same period of last year. In July, RMB loans increased by 345.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 349.8 billion yuan.

  According to preliminary statistics, the scale of social financing in the first seven months totaled 22.08 trillion yuan, 206.9 billion yuan more than the same period of last year. In July, the scale of social financing increased by 528.2 billion yuan, 270.3 billion yuan less than the same period of last year.

  Experts believe that on the whole, the financial data in July was lower than market expectations, mainly due to short-term fluctuations caused by overdraft effect and delayed release of financing demand, which does not mean that the process of wide credit has changed. At present, the macro-policy control is increasing, and the credit downturn will not last.

  "The financial data in July was less than expected, mainly due to three reasons: First, the economy is in a weak repair period, the recovery situation is not stable, and the financing demand of the real economy is still weak; Second, the scale of social financing and RMB loans unexpectedly rebounded and grew rapidly in June, and the credit supply of financial institutions was rushed ahead of schedule, which overdrawn the credit demand in July to some extent; The third is seasonal factors, and July is usually a small month for credit. " Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, said.

  Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that the high credit impulse in June had an overdraft effect on the credit demand in July, which would significantly increase the monthly fluctuation of new loans. This phenomenon appeared many times in April, July and October, 2022. At the same time, although the expectation of steady growth continued to improve in July, the incremental policy was limited, and the economic recovery was still weak, especially in the real estate market, and the credit demand of enterprises and residents was not strong. In addition, the interest rate cut in June and the lowering of the quoted interest rate (LPR) in the loan market may have formed a strong downward expectation of interest rates in the market, causing some enterprises or residents to postpone financing needs in order to wait for lower financing costs.

  By sector, in July, household loans decreased by 200.7 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 133.5 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan; Loans from enterprises and institutions increased by 237.8 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 378.5 billion yuan, medium-and long-term loans increased by 271.2 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 359.7 billion yuan; Loans from non-banking financial institutions increased by 217 billion yuan.

  "We should attach great importance to the problems of weak confidence in the household sector and sluggish market demand, make efforts from the demand side as soon as possible, speed up the adjustment and optimization of housing purchase restriction and loan restriction policies, continue to strengthen the implementation of differentiated housing credit policies, and comprehensively reduce the down payment ratio and cancel ‘ Recognizing the house and the loan ’ Measures such as reducing the interest rate of stock loans. " Dong Ximiao said that the current adjustment of housing credit policy mainly focuses on supporting rigid housing demand, and more powerful measures should be taken to support improved housing demand. At the same time, accelerate the adoption of more comprehensive measures to stabilize and expand the large-scale consumption of automobiles and homes.

  In July, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party focused on the three goals of "expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence and preventing risks", and proposed to strengthen macro-policy regulation, countercyclical adjustment and policy reserve, which clearly released the signal of supporting the real economy. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that policy bottoming and economic accumulation will drive the subsequent stable credit expansion and credit structure optimization, and further enhance the momentum of steady economic recovery.

  "A series of policy combinations introduced in July are highly targeted, which will effectively alleviate the operating pressure of private enterprises, accelerate the recovery of the real estate market, promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, stimulate residents’ consumption, expand consumption and investment, improve growth expectations, and accelerate the promotion of credit repair." Wang Yunjin, a senior researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, also believes that the policy level is expected to continue to increase in the third quarter. The People’s Bank of China may comprehensively consider various tools of monetary policy and continue to support credit expansion by lowering the RRR, structurally lowering interest rates, and guiding banks to lower the interest rate of existing mortgages.

  Dong Ximiao said that in the past three years, China has not implemented a strong stimulus policy, and there is a large room for monetary policy adjustment, and policy tools and policy reserves are relatively rich, so it is possible to increase implementation. At present, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions in China is about 7.6%, and there is still room for RRR reduction. At the same time, we should further deepen the reform of interest rate marketization, give play to the role of LPR formation mechanism reform, and guide the market interest rate to continue to decline. (Economic Daily reporter Yao Jin)